best ten stocks to buy for wed.2/22/12:$tc, $jade, $abx.. etc.

so many trades occurred today that i had to provide a new post.

NEW FEATURE/ SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL:
short term non elliott wave proprietary timing model is on a buy signal since 2/17/12.

PORTFOLIOS:
category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

1. roadmap/spy: 95% short, unchanged from prior post.

2. value low risk): 80% long, changed from prior post’s 60% long, see pertinent comments below.

3. high risk: 100% short, unchanged from prior post .

4. medium risk: 0% vested, unchanged from prior post.

5. small cap/tna: 0% vested, changed from prior post of 100% long.

6. real estate: 0% vested, unchanged from prior post, intra day trades, see pertinent comments below.

7. metals: 50% allocation of $nugt added to metals portfolio at 23.50, now 50% long.

8. options: 10% long $AGQ january 2013 70 calls @ 13.65,long 10% long $UNG january 2014 7.00 calls @ 0.875. options folio is now 30% long. previous post incorrectly listed a 20% long position in tna calls whereas it was 10%.

9. energy: 50% allocation of $ung added to energy folio at 5.42, now 100% long.

10 long-term commododity folio was 30% long,10% each: in $AGQ from 58.77, long $POT from 46.10, and 10% long $URRE from 1.11, today added a 10% position in $nugt at 23.82
l.t. commod. portfolio is now 40% long. changed.

total portfolio commitment = 545/10 = 54.5%
total short exposure = 19.5%%
total long exposure = 35%,
net long = 15.5.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

TOP TEN STOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY 2/22/12/Worth a Ponder:

Position Open Close Status
Buy RIC 12.15 close open
Buy MOS pending close
Buy FELE pending close
Buy CENX pending close
Buy DTG 75.14 close open
Buy HAL 37.03 close open
Buy AGCO 53.50 close open
Buy ABX 48.45 close open
Buy JADE pending close
Buy TC 8.91 close open
(for educational purposes not portfolio purchase).

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:06 am
50% allocation of drn added at 61.41 for real estate portfolio.

2.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:15 am
50% allocation of $ung added to energy folio at 5.42, now 100% long.

3. i’m expecting long term commodity inflation, thus the steady increment in long commodity etfs. i’ll post some elliott wave charts for commodities later.

4.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:31 am
here are the open prices for today’s top 10 value buys.
Buy DEST 16.52
Buy COBZ 6.18
Buy DISCA 45.22
Buy CNH 43.96
Buy TCAP 19.93
Buy AER 12.61
Buy KNOL 15.85
Buy AXTI 5.42
Buy TPCG 33.92

5. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:47 am
50% allocation of $nugt added to metals portfolio at 23.50, prior order to buy a 50% allocation at 22.30 is still active.

6. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:13 am
10% allocation in options folio, long $AGQ january 2013 70 calls @ 13.65.
options folio is now 20% long ( incorrectly posted as 20% long in post prior to this trade).

7. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:20 am |
long 10% allocation in options folio $UNG january 2014 7.00 calls @ 0.875. options folio is now 30% long.

8. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:27 am |
added $FFN at 2.56 to value folio. now 70% long. in value folio.

9.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:29 am |
adding $ESI to value folio @75.64, folio now 80% long.

10. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:33 am |
5.60 buy stop on $PERI for value folio, this stock has a 15% dividend.
all value folio buys are long term plays.

11. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:56 am |
stopped out of 50% drn long allocation from 61.41 at 60.95 for a 0.07% loss.

12. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 1:17 pm |
adding a 10% allocation of $nugt to long term commodity portfolio at 23.82 l.t. commod. portfolio is now 40% long.

13. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 2:50 pm |
NEW FEATURE:
short term non elliott wave proprietary timing model is on a buy signal since 2/17/12.
it provides buy, warning and sell short signals. signals last from 2 to 20 market days. average is about 10 market days.
(edit: actually a better version will be used which does contain elements of elliott and fibonacci.)

14.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 3:02 pm |
tna longs from 62.41 closed out at 61.25 for a 1.8% loss.

Summary:
the 1370-80spx i predicted months ago starting in september 2011 will surely be fulfilled, sadly with out the strong pullback i was looking for first.

next stop for wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 is: standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:36 pm
spx 1511.21 is one possible termination point for wave 3.

keep an eye on the top 10 buys list as they make for great short term trades. 1-5 days. most have great earnings and decent momentum, good criteria for lower risk trades.

watch comments section for the latest in trades and market commentary.

subscribe to this blog for free by filling out the section in the top right corner.

TOP TEN BUYS FOR TODAY / THE BLUE COLLAR POST: roadmap for tues., 2/22/12

annotations for above chart are
AS = accumalation of shorts. RS = reduction of shots.
AL = accumulation of longs. RS = reduction of longs.

PORTFOLIOS:
category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

roadmap/spy: 95% short, unchanged from prior post.
value low risk): 60% long, changed from prior post.
high risk: 100% short, unchanged from priot post .
medium risk: 0% vested, changed from prior pos.
small cap/tna: 100% long tna from 62.41, changed from prior post.
real estate: 0% vested, changed from prior post.
metals: 0% vested,changed.
options: 20% long calls, changed.
energy: 50% long ung from, unchanged.
long-term commod. 30% long,10% each: in $AGQ from 58.77, long $POT from 46.10, and 10% long $URRE from 1.11. changed.

total portfolio commitment = 555/10 = 55.5%
total short exposure = 19.5%%
total long exposure = 36%,
net long = 16.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

Top 10 Value Buys For Today/Worth a Ponder
new feature:
Buy $DEST
Buy $COBZ
Buy $DISCA
Buy $CNH
Buy $TCAP
Buy $AER
Buy $KNOL
Buy $AXTI
Buy $TPCG
i won’t be adding these to any portfolio just yet.

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1. | February 16, 2012 at 11:07 am

stopped out of $DRN short from 64.01 at 63.26 for a 1.17% profit.
stopped out of $TNA short from 60.03 at 60.62 for a 0.9% loss.
both portfolios are now flat.
$NUGT portfolio is still short from 24.58.

2. standard_and_poor | February 16, 2012 at 4:38 pm
new position: long $TNA from 61.48
new position: long $DRN from 63.40
closed $NUGT short from 24.58 at 21.87 for an 11.08% profit.
new position: long $NUGT from 22.88.

3. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 3:39 am
closed out option portfolio, was 30% long feb 130 spy puts from avg price of 3.30, close at .025.
closed out value portfolio shorts, portfolio was 10% vested in spy shorts from 130.21. closed out at 136.03 for 4.46% loss.
closed out medium risk portfolio. was 60% short spy from 128.22. closed out at 136.02 for a 6.08% loss.
roadmap and high risk portfolios are still short.

4. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 3:45 am
a 10% allocation of each of the following six stocks were bought in the value portfolio : $OSIR @ 4.91, $PDLI @ 6.41, $USMO @ 14.79, $VECO @ 28.34, $AAPL @ 502.19, and $GPS @ 22.45. i have buy stops on four other somewhat undervalued stocks. i’ll do a write up on all ten later.

5. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 8:00 pm
sold nugt longs from 22.81 at 22.01 for a 3.5% loss. metal portfolio is now flat.

6. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 11:21 am
50% long $UNG in the energy portfolio from 5.55 at the open. waiting for a pullback to add more.

7. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 11:29 am
closed out tna longs from 61.48 at 63.68 for a 3.5% profit.
closed out drn long from 63.40 at 63.45 for a 0.07% profit.

8. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 12:54 pm
adding $URRE to long term commodities portfolio @1.11.

9. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 3:47 pm
added a 10% allocation of $TNA January 2013 68 calls at 12.60 to options portfolio.

10. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm |
added $POT to long term commodities portfolio at 46.10.

11. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:18 pm
long $AGQ from 58.77 in long term commodity portfolio.

12. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:34 pm
$TNA longs re-entered at 62.41.

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Summary:
the 1370-80spx i predicted months ago starting in september 2011 will surely be fulfilled, sadly with out the strong pullback i was looking for first.

next stop for wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 is: standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:36 pm
spx 1511.21 is one possible termination point for wave 3.

keep an eye on the top 10 buys list as they make for great short term trades. 1-5 days. most have great earnings and decent momentum, good criteria for lower risk trades.

watch comments section for the latest in trades and market commentary.

A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

I Wanna Be Adored: roadmap for thurs., 2/17/2012

PORTFOLIOS:

category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

roadmap/spy: 90% short, unchanged from prior post.
value/low risk: 10% short, unchanged.
high risk: 100% short, unchanged.
medium risk: 60% short, unchanged.
small cap/tna: 100% short tna from 60.03, unchanged.
real estate: 100% short drn from 64.01, unchanged.
metals: 100% short $nugt from 24.58, unchanged.
options: 30% long spy puts, unchanged.
energy: 0%, unchanged.
long-term commod. 0%, unchanged.

total portfolio commitment = 590/10 = 59.0%
total short exposure = 59.0%
total long exposure = 0%,
net short 59.0%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

watch comments section for portfolio updates, purchases and sales.

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1.standard_and_poor | February 15, 2012 at 1:56 am
I WILL START CLOSING OUT SHORTS TEN MINUTES PRIOR TO ANY SPX DAILY CLOSE WHEN WE ARE ABOVE 1357. i try to stick to the plan although i have to admit i strayed a bit more than i should have with the amount of shorts i put on while still in a confirmed uptrend. i must admit when i’m wrong and bite the bullet as all traders should.

larry asked “at what point i would throw in the towel and reevaulate wave 5″, i responded: Submitted on 2012/01/25 at 9:44 pm | In reply to Larry:
“spx 1348-57 for the roadmap, high risk, med. risk and value portfolios.”

SUMMARY:

this market has been quite the bitch for those of us who have been short, hasn’t it mates? contrary opinion per aaii is feverishly bullish and i’m sure many shorties have fallen by the waysides
and can be found jaundiced and broke along the road sides. the futures are currently down about 7 points and my indicators maintain their overbought and short posture.

Running On Faith: roadmap for week end,2/11/12, $GGC stockwatch

PORTFOLIOS:

category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

roadmap/spy: 90% short, unchanged from prior post.
value low risk): 10% short, unchanged.
high risk: 100% short, unchanged.
medium risk: 60% short, unchanged.
small cap/tna: 100% short tna from 60.03, changed from prior post.
real estate: 100% short drn from 64.01, unchanged.
metals: 100% short $nugt from 24.58, unchanged.
options: 30% long spy puts, unchanged.
energy: 0%, unchanged.
long-term commod. 0%, unchanged.

total portfolio commitment = 590/10 = 59.0%
total short exposure = 59.0%
total long exposure = 0%,
net short 59.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

watch comments section for portfolio updates, purchases and sales.

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1.standard_and_poor | February 9, 2012 at 4:01 pm
increased roadmap longs (spy) at spx 1352 by 5% to a total roadmap short allocation of 90%.
total portfolio shorts still less than 40%.
2.standard_and_poor | February 10, 2012 at 11:35 am
stopped out of tna at 60.05 from 62.15 for a 3.37% loss.
now short tna from 60.03.
3.standard_and_poor | February 10, 2012 at 2:28 pm
correction to roadmap chart : the 5% addition to roadmap shorts for a total of 90% short were added on 2/09/12 not 1/10/12.

Worth a Ponder#4/Stock Watch, a short: $GGC

$GGC is under going some decent distribution as can be seen by the higher volume on red days. there is a big gap underneath current prices that serves as a magnet. earnings are not that great either.

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Summary:
wave 5) of wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 may be complete. downside to at least wave 4), spx 1300 may be within reach soon. 1280-1250 may be possible. after compeltion of pullback i’m looking for 1500-1600 spx by end of year.

ok, time to mellow out prior to monday, cheers!

p.s if you like the “worth a ponder” sections, let me know. finding these and posting them does considerably eat up some of my chill-out/time.

ROADMAP / WORTH A PONDER,$RBCN, 02/09/12, thursday.

MARKET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE, if we check under the hood.
more details later in the comments section.

i’m still mostly short but i’ll be scouting long ideas for future reference. a close above the rising channel of $rbcn on higher volume than prior day would be a buy. the stock has decent financials as you can see below the chart itself.

PORTFOLIOS:
roadmap, 85% short, unchanged from prior post.
value (low risk), 10% short, unchanged.
high risk, 100% short, unchanged.
medium risk, 60% short, unchanged.
tna, 100% long from 62.15.
drn, 100% short from 64.01 from flat.
gold, 100% short $nugt from 24.58.
options, 30% long puts, unchanged.
long-term commodities, flat, unchanged.
natural gas, flat, closed out short.

total portfolio commitment = 585/10 = 58.5%
total short exposure = 48.5%
total long exposure = 10%,
net short 38.5%

i’ll try to add more details to this post later. this market has been quite choppy for my short term trading system but they should catch the next strong trend in either direction.

watch the comments section for portfolio updates.

WORTH A PONDER NO.2, $TDW (short),02/01/2012

i know of no one who consistently posts their trades and corresponding profit/losses as i do. perhaps i’m a fool to do so but i think it separates me from the rest of the blogs and i will continue to do so even if i should have to carry the brunt of glaring losses in the future, as all traders eventually do… after all, it is a blog of my trades and i continue to learn as i hope many of you are doing in unison. posting charts with opinions but without trades and a record of their outcome is at a minimum bland and possibly intellecually dishonest to oneself and the reader but the occasional “worth a ponder post” is an exception as it is posted for intellectual amusement – i may take the trade or i may not take the trade – if i take the above trade it shall be duly noted in the portfolio and followed up upon the day the trade is initiated for one of my portfolios. i post “worth a ponder charts” such as that of $tdw to initiate, and possibly educate the reader into how i sometimes examine possible trade candidates – i see very few bloggers with the exception of one or two others doing such.

Pertinent comments from prior post in ascending order by time:

1. Submitted on 2012/01/31 at 2:37 am
for tuesday morning only:
shorting tna at 54.44
shorting drn at 60.12
and starting a new natural gas portfolio in which i’ll short ung at 5.44.
the natural gas portfolio is a new short term swing system similar to tna and drn.
no trade signal for gold portfolio.
roadmap portfolio is still 85% short.
entire portfolio is still 30.55% short, 0% long.

2. Submitted on 2012/01/31 at 11:29 am
short signal on drn cancelled for now.
100% short tna @ 54.44
100% short ung @ 5.42

PORTFOLIOS:
roadmap, 85% short, unchanged from prior post.
value (low risk), 10% short, unchanged.
high risk, 100% short, unchanged.
medium risk, 60% short, unchanged.
tna, 100% short @54.44, changed from flat.
drn, flat, unchanged.
gold, flat, unchanged.
options, 30% long puts, unchanged.
long-term commodities, flat, unchanged.
natural gas, 100% short $ung @5.42

total portfolio commitment = 485/10=48.5%
total short exposure = 48.5%
total long exposure = 0%,

Summary:
we are still in intermediate wave 3 with a possible irregular abc correction in process. waiting for wave c down to commence in earnest. to re-itererate from the previous post:
“if we close in the red on monday chances are about 70% that the top for wave B at 1333.47 is in.

the 38.2% fibonacci retracement for wave B is 1266.70 and the 50% fibonacci retracement for wave 3 of B is 1267.92. there is a good chance we’ll get a bounce off of this general area of 1266 to 1255.

the red light for longs is that the retracement could take a deeper u turn to slightly below the low of wave A, 1158.66. i think the probability is that we will assuredly drop below 1255, how deep is hard to tell at this point. if we do drop below 1158.66 the low should occur by about march 06, 2012 – which is 61.82% of wave B’s length of 41 market days.”

we might only drop to to 1260-55 spx but the danger of a much greater decline is eminent and therefore bares a bearish stance if not at least a time for cash.

keep watching the comments section for the most timely details as time permits.

best of health and bliss to all.

ROLLING AND TUMBLING: roadmap, mon.,1/30/2012

if we close in the red on monday chances are about 70% that the top for wave B entirety at 1333.47 is in.

the 38.2% fibonacci retracement for wave B is 1266.70 and the 50% fibonacci retracement for wave 3 of B is 1267.92. there is a good chance we’ll get a bounce off of this general area of 1266 to 1255.

the red light for longs is that the retracement could take a deeper u turn to slightly below the low of wave A, 1158.66. i think the probability is that we will assuredly drop below 1255, how deep is hard to tell at this point. if we do drop below 1158.66 the low should occur by about march 06, 2012 – which is 61.82% of wave B’s length of 41 market days.

i’ll update this post with further information if time permits in the morning.

SUMMARY:
red flag for longs as this pullback may be deeper than most would like in both time and price but to be followed by new 52 week highs.

WORTH A PONDER NO. 1 ($MTN). friday, 1/27/12

once in a while i will post a stock i consider worthy of my attention as a possible trade for one of my portfolios, $MTN is one such stock. i may or may not take this trade but it is worth a ponder.

standardpoor.wordpress.com
worth pondering post #1, short
1/27/12 friday, daily chart $MTN

1. sitting on 200 ma,
2. over bought
3. p/e of 128
4. declining sales and earnings qtr. over qtr.
5. miniscule return on equity
6. at or near resistance trend lines.

BLAME IT ON APPLE : roadmap for thurs., 1/26/12

remember to check this post’s comments section for the latest trading updates, as time permits.

pertinent comments from the prior post’s comments section in ascending order by time:
1. Submitted on 2012/01/23 at 10:17 am
increasing roadmap shorts at 1321.64 spx by 10% to 80%.

2. Submitted on 2012/01/23 at 11:44 am
stopped out on 100% nugt shorts from 22.08 at 21.27 this morning for a profit of 3.66%.

3. Submitted on 2012/01/24 at 11:24 pm | In reply to standard_and_poor.
no cigar. ONLY CHANGE IN PORTFOLIO IS IN GOLD, i am now again 100% short nugt from 19.86.

4. Submitted on 2012/01/25 at 1:54 pm
nugt short from 19.86 was stopped out at 22.18 for an 11.68% loss.

PORTFOLIOS:
roadmap, 80% short, increased from 70% short
value (low risk), 10% short
high risk, 100% short
medium risk, 60% short
tna, flat
drn, flat
gold, flat, reduced form 100% short
options, 30% long puts
long-term commodities, flat

total portfolio commitment = 280/9=31.11%
total short exposure = 31.11%
total long exposure = 0%,

SUMMARY:
as painful as trading can be sometimes we must maintain discipline in face of “adversity”. it all boils down to what we value most: money or family and health etc. a re-alignment of perspective helps one maintain the course and follow the plan.
next area for addition of roadmap portfolio shorts is 1231-33 or perhaps higher if possible.

a tip o’ the hat:

There’s a king on a throne with his eyes torn out
There’s a blind man looking for a shadow of doubt
There’s a rich man sleeping on a golden bed
There’s a skeleton choking on a crust of bread

King of pain

There’s a red fox torn by a huntsman’s pack
That’s my soul up there
There’s a black-winged gull with a broken back
That’s my soul up there
There’s a little black spot on the sun today
It’s the same old thing as yesterday

I have stood here before in the pouring rain
With the world turning circles running ’round my brain
I guess I always thought you could end this reign
But it’s my destiny to be the king of pain

King of pain
King of pain
King of pain
I’ll always be king of pain

“IT’S ALL APPLES FAULT” or “the top keeps getting bigger and bigger”:

BASHFUL TOP: roadmap for fri., 1/20/12

pertinent comments from the prior post’s comment section in ascending order by time:

1a. Submitted on 2012/01/17 at 11:47 am
stopped out of 100% allocation of drn shorts at 54.19 from 51.13 for a 5.65% loss.

1b.Submitted on 2012/01/18 at 10:57 am
tna shorts (each a 50% allocation) from 48.91 and 50.90 for an avg. of 49.905 stopped out at at 50.90 for a 1.99% loss.

2. Submitted on 2012/01/18 at 11:10 am
value portfolio : short 10% allocation from flat of spy at 130.21.

3.Submitted on 2012/01/18 at 3:21 pm
we just printed 1307.67 spx. i’m adding another 10% allocation to roadmap short portfolio and a 10% allocation to feb. 130 spy puts.

4.Submitted on 2012/01/18 at 4:33 pm
roadmap shorts increased by 10% to 70% at spx 1307.5 and option portfolio feb. 130 spy put increased by 10% to 30% at 2.33.
still short 100% nugt in the gold portfolio, stops will be readjusted by system signals.

5. Submitted on 2012/01/19 at 1:25 am
next point for me to add some heavy shorts in the elliott based portfolios is in the spx 1330′s range if we get there. tna, drn and the gold portfolios are trading system based portfolios and have nothing to do with elliott wave.

6. Submitted on 2012/01/19 at 11:56 pm
i’m watching 1317-18 as a possible tipping point tilting down.

PORTFOLIOS:
roadmap, 70% short
value (low risk), 10% short
high risk, 100% short
medium risk, 60% short
tna, flat
drn, flat
gold, 100% short nugt
options, 30% long puts
long term commodities, flat

total portfolio commitment = 370/9=41.11%
total short exposure = 41.11%
total long exposure = 0%,

SUMMARY:
i continue to add shorts as i await this short term top. once the shoe falls off into wave c territory the ensuing kick up will be powerful.

continue to watch the comments section for the latest trading updates, as time permits.

some tops are bashful and not ready to reveal themselves: