The “September Spawned A Monster” roadmap featuring standard_and _poor

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/09/12, AND STRATEGY FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 1985.66, -11.91, +0.60%

Continuing to administer precautions against short term declines, maintaining a 20% allocation in uvxy longs from last week and adding more on Monday if the necessary conditions present themselves; I need to have the spx continue to prove itself prior to adding more uvxy longs. I found it necessary to unload a 10% allocation of uvxy longs in the face of Friday morning’s spx stall and stronger than expected retail data.
The proprietary smart money indicator , an intermediate term indicator, continues on a SELL since 2014/09/09.
Short term equity models continue to languish, with both the qqq and the big cap models on a SELL.
The short-term gold model remains at -10, on a strong sell.
The Elliott “PSTT” remains on the verge of a SELL.

The better investors/money managers are the ones that can identify the start of a long-term trend and remain steadfast and stay with that trend, the best money managers identify and stay with the trend but also find a way to benefit from volatility and short term changes in the trend and can identify early changes in the existing long-term trend. Let’s see how the anticipated downdraft continues to unfold, it will be interesting as usual. How invigorating is the life of an investor/trader to live in interesting times. I never wanted to be rich, I am not naturally self interested or greedy. I was supposed to grow up to be a philosopher/“champagne socialist”.

If I am stopped out of my four 5% long allocations (twtr, tsla, fb and nflx ) it will be with small profits.

In the nappa valley folio I am leading the spx since I started the folio on 2014/08/09 but I have to admit it has been tough for me to get the high returns I obtained when I last used this methodology in the late 1990’s, a time when everything was flying by leaps and bounds – remember the internet stocks easily jumping through hoops, increasing 5% to 10% in a single day.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR MONDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
+the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14 and remains on a BUY. A CLOSE BELOW SPX 1982.05 WILL TRIGGER A SELL.
-The large cap indicator switched to a “SELL” on Friday,2014/09/12, after having been on a buy since 2014/08/15, currently at -6, down 1 from the last session.
-the qqq indicator has switched to a SELL on 2014/09/11 and is now at -7, up 1 from the last session.
-The gold indicator remains on a SELL at -10, unchanged from the last session.
-the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a SELL on, 2014/09/09, from a BUY on 2014/08/08.
+-The heaven/hell crash indicator declined to a neutral to mildly bullish +4 as of Friday, 2014/09/12, down 2 from last Friday. This reading is usually neutral to mildly bullish for the next five days about 70-80% of the time. A -10 reading predicts a start of a crash ala 2008 within days to a few weeks.
+all other long term equity indicators remain on a BUY since spring of 2009.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*UVXY: On 2014/09/12 closed a 10% long alloc. of uvxy per real time tweet at 25.00, On 2014/09/10 bought a 30% long allocation of uvxy at 25.10, for a loss of 0.039% or $398.
UVXY: On 2014/09/10 near the close closed a 10% long allocation of uvxy at 24.36, on 2014/09/09 bought a 5% allocation of uvxy at 24.19 for a 0.7% loss, on 2014/09/09 bought a 5% long allocation of uvxy at 24.60 for a 0.97% loss or about $970.

PRIOR WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES:
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : on 2014/09/02 closed a 20% long alloc. of uvxy at 24.11 ,on 2014/08/28 bought a 20% long alloc. at 25.54, for a 5.48%/$10,976 loss.
JNUG: on 2014/08/28 closed a 5% short alloc. at 24.45, on 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. at 24.45, for a break even trade.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :on 2014/08/26 closed a 10% short allocation at 23.81,on 2014/08/25 shorted a 10% alloc. at 23.20 per tweet, for a 2.62%/$2,629 loss.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/0822 closed the last two esu14 contracts at 1986.00,holding on 2014/08/18 bought 2 contracts at 1950.25, for a 37.20% profit on margin or $3,572.
ESU14: on 2014/08/20 closed 2 esu14 contracts at 1977.00 for a 22.65% profit on margin or a $2,175 profit.
JNUG: on 2014/08/20 closed a 5% long alloc. of jnug at 24.45, on 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc. was bought at 26.67, for a 8.32% loss/$4,162 loss.
TZA: on 2014/08/20 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. at 14.96, on 2014/08/15 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 1.64%/$821 profit.
SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 calls at 3.00, on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.), for a 82.37%/$542 profit..
ESU14: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 esu longs at 1973.00, one was long from 1952.25, for a $1037.5 profit; three were long from 1950.25, for a $2,375 profit. A total 17.77% profit on margin.
TZA: on 2014/08/19 closed a 5% short alloc. of tza at 14.84, on 2014/0815 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 2.43%/$1,215 profit.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/18 closed 8 at 1963.25, on 2014/08/18 originally bought 25 (now hold 8) at 1934.50, for a profit of $11,500 or 29.9% profit on margin, or a 1.15% profit on total portfolio.
ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% profit on total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION:
includes 5 long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each folio was originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term positions in “current holdings” , hedgehog folio(s) and the leveraged etf folio with a total 4% allocation . the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. Does not include Napa Valley sub account or options (if under 1% each).
119.0% invested, a decrease from the last session.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS IN $1MM PORTFOLIO AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/09/12:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1. ESZ14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): flat.
*1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : 20% long. On 2014/09/12 closed a 10% long alloc. of uvxy per real time tweet at 25.00, On 2014/09/10 bought a 30% long allocation of uvxy at 25.10, for a loss of 0.039% or $398.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
5.JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/09/03 shorted a 5% alloc. of jnug at 21.80.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: 5% long. On 2014/08/26 bought a 5% alloc. at 48.11.
7. FB: 5% long. On 201/09/03 bought a 5% alloc. of fb at 71.70..
8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
10. NFLX: 5% long. On 2014/08/21 bought a 5% alloc. of nflx at 472.10 per tweet.
11. TSLA: 5% long . On 2014/08/29 bought a 5% alloc. at 268.74.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. SPX, SEPT. 2014 1775 puts: on 2014/08/18 bought 12 at 0.75, on 2014/08/20 bought 3 at 0.45

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/09/15 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
1A: ESZ14(s&p 500 e-mini december 2014 futures): Flat. No signal.
*1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): 20% long. 23.33 stop. Buying a 10% alloc. on a break of spx 1979.00.
2. NUGT: flat. No signal.
3. TNA: flat. No signal.
3A. TZA: flat. No signal.
4. SPXL: flat. No signal.
4A. SPXA: flat. No signal.
5. JNUG: 5% short. 18.76 stop.
5A. JDST: flat. No signal.
6. TWTR: 5% long. 49.02 stop.
*7. FB: 5% long. 77.11 stop.
8. PLUG: flat. No signal.
9. AAPL: flat. No signal.
10. NFLX: 5% long at 472.10 per real time tweet. 474.18 stop.
11. TSLA: 5% long. 272.48 stop.
12. GOGO: flat. No signal.
13. SPX, Sept. 1775 puts (insurance against randomness and stupidity): long 10 at 0.75. long 3 at 0.45. no stop yet.

The NEW “2014/09/01 LEVERAGED ETF FOLIO” (goal is to hold for at least three months):
The following were added at today’s open,2014/09/12, a 0.5% allocation of each:
1. DRN: long at 65.10.
2. EDC: long at 118.70.
3. ERX: long at 122.86.
4. INDL: long at 103.27.
5. LBJ: long at 30.79.
6. SOXL: long at 118.57.
7. TMF: long at 68.70.
8. XIV: (not a leveraged etf) long at 43.41.

HEDGEHOG A:
As of 2014/08/14 short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv at 43.18.
HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.
ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

The $10,000 NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT:
(*) indicates a change in holdings, stop, or strategy.
*1. UVXY: long 40shares. On 2014/09/09 bought 40 shares of uvxy at 24.60. Maintain 23.33 stop.

CLOSED $10 K NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT TRADES:
(*)denotes a new closed trade for today:
FOLD: flat. On 2014/09/10 closed 140 shares at 7.71, On 2014/09/03 bought 40 shares of fold per tweet at 7.01, for a 2.28%/$22.40 profit.
TRUE: on 2014/09/09 closed 50 shares at 22.63, on 2014/09/02 bought 50 shares at 22.63 stop, for a profit of 8.32%/$190.40.
CENX: on 2014/09/09 closed 40 shares at 28.23, on 2014/08/26 bought 40 shares of cenx at 23.43 for a profit of 20.3%/$190.40.
ACHN: on 2014/09/05 closed 80 shares, on 2014/09/03 bought 80 shares at 12.57, for a break even trade.
ZEN: On 2014/09/05 closed 40 shares at 24.47, on 2014/09/02 bought 40 shares at 27.69 for a 10.65%/$116.80 loss.
GILD: on 2014/09/05 closed 10 shares at 106.45, on 2014/08/27 bought 10 shares of gild at 106.50, for a break even trade.
SLCA: on 2014/09/05 closed 15 shares at 66.75, on 2014/08/25 bought 15 shares of slca at 66.74. for break even.
UVXY: forgot to report yesterday, stop taken out. On 2014/09/03 closed 20 long shares at 24.12, for a 5.37%/$18 loss.
TRLA: On 2014/09/03 closed all 16 trla shares at 62.19, on 2014/08/26 bought 16 shares of trla at at 61.35, for a 1.36%/$13 profit.
HTCH: On 2014/09/03 closed all 200 shares of htch at 4.66, on 2014/08/27 bought 200 shares of htch at 4.50, for a 3.55%/$32.00 profit.
EMES: On 2014/09/03 closed all 4 shares of emes at 135.69, on 2014/08/28 bought 4 shares of emes at 135.49, for a break even trade. 0%
ATHM: on 2014/09/02 closed 20 shares at 46.66, on 2014/08/27 bought 20 shares of athm at 56.52. for a 17.50%/$198 loss.
PLNR: on 2014/08/22 closed 250 plnr at 4.35 per tweet, bought 400 at 4.16 on 2014/08/19, for a 4.56%/$47.50 profit.
AMKR: on 2014/08/22 closed 100 amkr at 10.00 per tweet, long 100 at 9.68 on 2014/08/19, for a 2.45%/$24 profit.
SUMR: on 2014/08/22 closed 240 SUMR at 4.69, on 2014/08/19 bought 240sumr at 4.08, for a 14.85%/$146 profit.
WPCS: on 2014/08/21 closed 890 at 1.02, on 2014/08/19 bought 890 at1.12, for a 8.92%/$89 loss.
PAM: on 2014/08/21 closed 100 at 9.19, on 2014/08/19 bought 100 at 9.76, for a 5.84%/$57 loss.
CIG: on 2014/08/21 closed 120 at 8.77, on 2014/08/19 bought 120 at 8.64, for a 1.50%/$15.60 profit.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
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to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.
Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner. Readers should not attempt to mimic my trades as they can be volatile and financially hazardous.

The “More You Ignore Me” roadmap for monday, 2014/09/08, featuring standard_and_poor

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/09/05, AND STRATEGY FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 200707, +10.06, +0.50%

Last week’s heaven/hell indicator correctly predicted a higher spx close for the week. Today’s proprietary heaven/hell crash indicator has declined to +6 from last Friday’s +10, which is still bullish. Although, the proprietary intermediate term smart money indicator is now in over-bought territory I am taking a swing in adding a few more longs via shorting uvxy (trades inverse to spx).

No shorting is planned for Monday.

Long term, the next several months ahead continue to look rosy, all long term indicators remain on a BUY with continuing confirmations. I still remain vigilant in case of a short term correction especially with the smart money indicator in over bought-terrain.
The euroland’s decision to buy corporate bonds will eventually serve to support our markets as well, although for the short term the major euorpean stock markets appear very toppy.

I will be giving the Napa Valley trades a rest.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR MONDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
+the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14 and remains on a BUY.
+The large cap indicator switched to a “BUY” on Friday, 2014/08/15, currently at +8, unchanged from the last session.
+the qqq indicator is on a tenuous BUY -5, down 13 from the last session.
-The gold indicator remains on a SELL at -9, unchanged from the last session.
+the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory, and is now in definite over bought territory and may soon signal a sell.
+The heaven/hell crash indicator is at a mildly bullish +6 as of Friday, 2014/09/05, down 4 from last Friday. This reading is usually mildly bullish for the next five days about 70-80% of the time. A -10 reading predicts a start of a crash ala 2008 within days to a few weeks .
+all other long term equity indicators remain on a BUY since early 2009.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : on 2014/09/02 closed a 20% long alloc. of uvxy at 24.11 ,on 2014/08/28 bought a 20% long alloc. at 25.54, for a 5.48%/$10,976 loss.

PRIOR WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES:
JNUG: on 2014/08/28 closed a 5% short alloc. at 24.45, on 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. at 24.45, for a break even trade.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :on 2014/08/26 closed a 10% short allocation at 23.81,on 2014/08/25 shorted a 10% alloc. at 23.20 per tweet, for a 2.62%/$2,629 loss.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/0822 closed the last two esu14 contracts at 1986.00,holding on 2014/08/18 bought 2 contracts at 1950.25, for a 37.20% profit on margin or $3,572.
ESU14: on 2014/08/20 closed 2 esu14 contracts at 1977.00 for a 22.65% profit on margin or a $2,175 profit.
JNUG: on 2014/08/20 closed a 5% long alloc. of jnug at 24.45, on 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc. was bought at 26.67, for a 8.32% loss/$4,162 loss.
TZA: on 2014/08/20 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. at 14.96, on 2014/08/15 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 1.64%/$821 profit.
SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 calls at 3.00, on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.), for a 82.37%/$542 profit..
ESU14: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 esu longs at 1973.00, one was long from 1952.25, for a $1037.5 profit; three were long from 1950.25, for a $2,375 profit. A total 17.77% profit on margin.
TZA: on 2014/08/19 closed a 5% short alloc. of tza at 14.84, on 2014/0815 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 2.43%/$1,215 profit.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/18 closed 8 at 1963.25, on 2014/08/18 originally bought 25 (now hold 8) at 1934.50, for a profit of $11,500 or 29.9% profit on margin, or a 1.15% profit on total portfolio.
ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% profit on total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
None.

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION:
includes 5 long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each folio was originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term positions in “current holdings” , hedgehog folio(s) and the leveraged etf folio with a total 4% allocation . the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. Does not include Napa Valley sub account or options (if under a fraction of 1% each).
89.0% invested.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS IN $1MM PORTFOLIO AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/09/05:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1. ESZ14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): flat.
1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : Flat 2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
5.JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/09/03 shorted a 5% alloc. of jnug at 21.80.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: 5% long. On 2014/08/26 bought a 5% alloc. at 48.11.
7. FB: 5% long. On 201/09/03 bought a 5% alloc. of fb at 71.70..
8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
10. NFLX: 5% long. On 2014/08/21 bought a 5% alloc. of nflx at 472.10 per tweet.
11. TSLA: 5% long . On 2014/08/29 bought a 5% alloc. at 268.74.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. FB. 5% long. On 2014/09/03 bought a 5% allocation at 77.10.
14. SPX, SEPT. 2014 1775 puts: on 2014/08/18 bought 12 at 0.75, on 2014/08/20 bought 3 at 0.45

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/09/08 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*1A: ESZ14(s&p 500 e-mini december 2014 futures): Flat. No signal.
*1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): Flat. Shorting (not buying) a 10% allocation at 23.33.
2. NUGT: flat. No signal.
3. TNA: flat. No signal.
3A. TZA: flat. No signal.
4. SPXL: flat. No signal.
4A. SPXA: flat. No signal.
5. JNUG: 5% short. No stop yet.
5A. JDST: flat. No signal.
6.TWTR: 5% long. 44.64 stop.
7. FB: 5% long. 71.70stop.
8. PLUG: flat. No signal.
9. AAPL: flat. No signal.
10. NFLX: 5% long at 472.10 per real time tweet. 448.55 stop.
11. TSLA: 5% long. 249.00 stop.
12. GOGO: flat. No signal.
13. FB: 5% long.
14. SPX, Sept. 1775 puts (insurance against randomness and stupidity): long 10 at 0.75. long 3 at 0.45. no stop yet.

The NEW “2014/09/01 LEVERAGED ETF FOLIO” (goal is to hold for at least three months):
The following were added at today’s open,2014/09/12, a 0.5% allocation of each:
1. DRN: long at 65.10.
2. EDC: long at 118.70.
3. ERX: long at 122.86.
4. INDL: long at 103.27.
5. LBJ: long at 30.79.
6. SOXL: long at 118.57.
7. TMF: long at 68.70.
8. XIV: (not a leveraged etf) long at 43.41.

HEDGEHOG A:
As of 2014/08/14 short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv (not tza) at 43.18.
HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.
ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

The $10,000 NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT:
(*) indicates a change in holdings, stop, or strategy.
*1. UVXY: Flat. Shorting (not buying) 40 shares at 23.33.
*2. SLCA: flat.
3. CENX: long 40 shares. On 2014/08/26 bought 40 shares of cenx at 23.43. 27.24 stop.
*4. GILD: flat.
5. TRUE: long 50 shares. On 2014/09/02 bought 50 shares at 20.89. 20.90 stop.
*6. ZEN: flat.
*7. ACHN: flat.
8. FOLD: long 140 shares. On 2014/09/03 bought 40 shares of fold per tweet at 7.01. 6.83 stop.

CLOSED $10 K NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT TRADES:
(*)denotes a new closed trade for today.
*. ACHN: on 2014/09/05 closed 80 shares, on 2014/09/03 bought 80 shares at 12.57, for a break even trade.
* ZEN: On 2014/09/05 closed 40 shares at 24.47, on 2014/09/02 bought 40 shares at 27.69 for a 10.65%/$116.80 loss.
* GILD: on 2014/09/05 closed 10 shares at 106.45, on 2014/08/27 bought 10 shares of gild at 106.50, for a break even trade.
* SLCA: on 2014/09/05 closed 15 shares at 66.75, on 2014/08/25 bought 15 shares of slca at 66.74. for break even.
UVXY: forgot to report yesterday, stop taken out. On 2014/09/03 closed 20 long shares at 24.12, for a 5.37%/$18 loss.
TRLA: On 2014/09/03 closed all 16 trla shares at 62.19, on 2014/08/26 bought 16 shares of trla at at 61.35, for a 1.36%/$13 profit.
HTCH: On 2014/09/03 closed all 200 shares of htch at 4.66, on 2014/08/27 bought 200 shares of htch at 4.50, for a 3.55%/$32.00 profit.
EMES: On 2014/09/03 closed all 4 shares of emes at 135.69, on 2014/08/28 bought 4 shares of emes at 135.49, for a break even trade. 0%
ATHM: on 2014/09/02 closed 20 shares at 46.66, on 2014/08/27 bought 20 shares of athm at 56.52. for a 17.50%/$198 loss.
PLNR: on 2014/08/22 closed 250 plnr at 4.35 per tweet, bought 400 at 4.16 on 2014/08/19, for a 4.56%/$47.50 profit.
AMKR: on 2014/08/22 closed 100 amkr at 10.00 per tweet, long 100 at 9.68 on 2014/08/19, for a 2.45%/$24 profit.
SUMR: on 2014/08/22 closed 240 SUMR at 4.69, on 2014/08/19 bought 240sumr at 4.08, for a 14.85%/$146 profit.
WPCS: on 2014/08/21 closed 890 at 1.02, on 2014/08/19 bought 890 at1.12, for a 8.92%/$89 loss.
PAM: on 2014/08/21 closed 100 at 9.19, on 2014/08/19 bought 100 at 9.76, for a 5.84%/$57 loss.
CIG: on 2014/08/21 closed 120 at 8.77, on 2014/08/19 bought 120 at 8.64, for a 1.50%/$15.60 profit.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.
Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner. Readers should not attempt to mimic my trades as they can be volatile and financially hazardous.

more data will be added later.

THE “SOME DAYS ARE BETTER THAN OTHERS” roadmap for monday, 2014/09/01, featuring standard and_poor

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/08/29, AND STRATEGY FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 2003.37, +6.63, +0.33%

This Friday’s reading of the heaven/hell indicator has ticked up to +10 from last Friday’s +8, implying that next week’s spx will gain ground. My 20% long allocation in uvxy will be promptly closed.
All other short term proprietary indicators remain in solidly bullish territory. My intermediate term smart money indicator remains in slightly overbought terrain but it doesn’t necessarily represent a threat to further rallying by the spx. It seems that I have been in a mini maelstrom that has been tugging for my attention in both directions but it seems the gentle summoning of the bulls shall win out. I will likely increase my longs to over a 100% exposure in the coming month.

The Napa Valley 10k sub account is off to a slow start, we need a bit more upside volatility to really get things off the ground, it should be forth coming. I should not have raised the original buy limit on this issue, I unfortunately ended up with a bad entry, I was too eager to get things rolling, not an exemplary example of sound money management, even for a $1,000 trade (1/10th of 1% total portfolio).

This week I am adding a new intermediate term folio, the leveraged etf folio. I will try to hold positions for at least three months and may re-adjust holdings at that point. In light of the improving performance of emerging markets I am buying a Latin American etf, an Indian etf and edc: an emerging markets etf. This new folio should be fun to follow in the week’s ahead as I know many readers likely follow these popular etfs, if not, it will be an exciting time to gain exposure to them.

LONG TERM FOLIOS (to be held for at least one year) AS OF FRIDAY, 2014/08/29:
big cap B: +0.20% today, +23.50% vs. spy benchmark of +18.69% since Oct. 10, 2013 inception.

-small cap C folio: +0.13% today, +20.74% vs. iwm benchmark of +9.82% since Oct. 10, 2013 inception.

-2014/08/13 small cap folio: +1.01% today, +6.11% vs. IWM benchmark of +3.06% since AUgust 08, 2014 inception.

-2014/08/13 large cap folio: +0.19% today, +2.03% vs. SPY benchmark of +3.04% since August 08, 2014. inception.

-2014/08/18 small cap folio: +0.16% today, +4.37% vs. IWM benchmark of +2.80% since August 18, 2014 inception.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR MONDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
*the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14 and remains on a BUY.
The large cap indicator switched to a “BUY” on Friday, 2014/08/15, currently at +10, unchanged from the last session.
the qqq indicator is on a BUY +9, up 2 from the last session.
*The gold indicator has switched to a BUY at +8, up a considerable 18 from the last session..
the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory, and continues in slightly overbought territory.
The heaven/hell crash indicator is at a bullish +10 as of Friday, 2014/08/29, up 2 from last Friday. This reading is usually bullish for the next five days about 70-80% of the time. A -10 reading predicts a start of a crash ala 2008 within days to a few weeks .
all other long term equity indicators remain on a BUY since early 2009.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
No closed trades today.
JNUG: on 2014/08/28 closed a 5% short alloc. at 24.45, on 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. at 24.45, for a break even trade.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :on 2014/08/26 closed a 10% short allocation at 23.81,on 2014/08/25 shorted a 10% alloc. at 23.20 per tweet, for a 2.62%/$2,629 loss.

PRIOR WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES:
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/0822 closed the last two esu14 contracts at 1986.00,holding on 2014/08/18 bought 2 contracts at 1950.25, for a 37.20% profit on margin or $3,572.
ESU14: on 2014/08/20 closed 2 esu14 contracts at 1977.00 for a 22.65% profit on margin or a $2,175 profit.
JNUG: on 2014/08/20 closed a 5% long alloc. of jnug at 24.45, on 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc. was bought at 26.67, for a 8.32% loss/$4,162 loss.
TZA: on 2014/08/20 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. at 14.96, on 2014/08/15 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 1.64%/$821 profit.
SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 calls at 3.00, on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.), for a 82.37%/$542 profit..
ESU14: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 esu longs at 1973.00, one was long from 1952.25, for a $1037.5 profit; three were long from 1950.25, for a $2,375 profit. A total 17.77% profit on margin.
TZA: on 2014/08/19 closed a 5% short alloc. of tza at 14.84, on 2014/0815 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 2.43%/$1,215 profit.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/18 closed 8 at 1963.25, on 2014/08/18 originally bought 25 (now hold 8) at 1934.50, for a profit of $11,500 or 29.9% profit on margin, or a 1.15% profit on total portfolio.
ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% profit on total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
None.

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION:
includes 5 long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each folio was originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term positions in “current holdings” and hedgehog folio(s). the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. Does not include Napa Valley sub account or options (if under a fraction of 1% each).
90.0% invested.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS IN $1MM PORTFOLIO AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/29:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1. ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): flat.
*1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : 20% long. On 2014/08/28 bought a 205 long alloc. at 25.54.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
*5.JNUG: flat.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: 5% long. On 2014/08/26 bought a 5% alloc. at 48.11.
7. FB: flat.
8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
10. NFLX: 5.0% long. On 2014/08/21 bought a 5% alloc. of nflx at 472.10 per tweet.
*11. TSLA: 5% long . On 2014/08/29 bought a 5% alloc. at 268.74.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. FB. Flat.
14. SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, SEPT. 2014 1775 puts: on 2014/08/18 bought 12 at 0.75, on 2014/08/20 bought 3 at 0.45

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/09/01 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): Flat. No signal.
*1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/28 bought a 20% alloc. at 25.54. using a 24.59 stop.
2. NUGT: flat. No signal.
3. TNA: flat. No signal.
3A. TZA: flat. No signal.
4. SPXL: flat. No signal.
4A. SPXA: flat. No signal.
*5. JNUG: flat. Buying a 5% allocation at 25.02.
5A. JDST: flat. No signal.
6.TWTR: 5% long. 44.64 stop.
7. FB: flat. No signal.
8. PLUG: flat. No signal.
9. AAPL: flat. No signal.
10. NFLX: 5.0% long at 472.10 per real time tweet. 448.55 stop.
*11. TSLA: 5% long. 249.00 stop.
12. GOGO: flat. No signal.
13. FB: buying a 5.0% alloc. at 76.77.
14. SPY, Sept. 2014, 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, Sept. 1775 puts (insurance against randomness and stupidity): long 10 at 0.75. long 3 at 0.45. no stop yet.

The NEW “2014/09/01 LEVERAGED ETF FOLIO”:
I will be adding the following LONGS at the open, a ½ of 1% allocation of each:
1. DRN
2. EDC
3. ERX
4. INDL
5. LBJ
6. SOXL
7. TMF
8. XIV

HEDGEHOG A:
As of 2014/08/14 short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv (not tza) at 43.18.
HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.
ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

The $10,000 NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT:
(*) indicates a change in holdings, stop or strategy.
*1. UVXY: Long 40 shares at 25.52. 24.59 stop.
2. SLCA: long 15 shares. On 2014/08/25 bought 15 shares of slca at 66.74.
3. CENX: long 40 shares. On 2014/08/26 bought 40 shares of cenx at 23.43.
4. ATHM: long 20 shares. On 2014/08/27 bought 20 shares of athm at 56.52. Using a 46.66 stop
5.TRLA: long 16 . on 2014/08/26 bought 16 shares of trla at at 61.35.
6. GILD: long 10 shares. On 2014/08/27 bought 10 shares of gild at 106.50.
7. HTCH: long. On 2014/08/27 bought 200 shares of htch at 4.50.
8. EMES: long 4 shares. On 2014/08/28 bought 4 shares of emes at 135.49.
*9. TRUE: flat. Buying 50 shares at open.
*10. ZEN: flat. Buying 40 shares at open.

CLOSED $10 K NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT TRADES:
*denotes a new closed trade for today.
PLNR: on 2014/08/22 closed 250 plnr at 4.35 per tweet, bought 400 at 4.16 on 2014/08/19, for a 4.56%/$47.50 profit.
AMKR: on 2014/08/22 closed 100 amkr at 10.00 per tweet, long 100 at 9.68 on 2014/08/19, for a 2.45%/$24 profit.
SUMR: on 2014/08/22 closed 240 SUMR at 4.69, on 2014/08/19 bought 240sumr at 4.08, for a 14.85%/$146 profit.
WPCS: on 2014/08/21 closed 890 at 1.02, on 2014/08/19 bought 890 at1.12, for a 8.92%/$89 loss.
PAM: on 2014/08/21 closed 100 at 9.19, on 2014/08/19 bought 100 at 9.76, for a 5.84%/$57 loss.
CIG: on 2014/08/21 closed 120 at 8.77, on 2014/08/19 bought 120 at 8.64, for a 1.50%/%15.60 profit.
click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.
Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner. Readers should not attempt to mimic my trades as they can be volatile and financially hazardous.

My best to all!

The “Big Top Circus” roadmap for monday, 2014/08/25, featuring standard_and_poor:

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/08/22 AND STRATEGY FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 1988.40, -3.97, -0.20%
Prepared late Sunday evening.

Below are the most recent three folios I added this month, as promised. The first two folios I gave to readers, on the day I bought them, in the daily mkt. updates. This time I decided to keep each folio at around fifteen stocks to show that it is possible to be quite profitable with under 40 stocks in a folio.

Every trader/investor should hold at least half of her portfolio in long term stock holdings, for a span of at least of a year, unless the heaven/nell indicator is signalling a crash. it will keep traders on the right track of the ledger since the market should bu rather bullish for the next several years.

Traders/investors are usually much too unrealistic in their expectations. Many young traders think 100%+ years are a realistic goal when in fact some of the world’s wealthiest investors average no more than 30-35% average returns during their life time careers Warren Buffet comes to mind. Unrealistic expectations are one of the main reasons traders take huge risks which very often turn into big losses that wipe out accounts. Don’t fall into that trap.

It is quite possible that the Thursday high of 1994.76 was the “b” wave top. I’m not expecting much more than a “c” wave down to 1900.00 spx.
My Elliott charts tell me that this market should be shorted even though all my short term indicators are still bullish, Elliott entries usually provide early entries and sometimes with the least risk… I shall continue to take a stab a shorting esu14 and buying uvxy. I continue to hold some Sept. spx puts as a hedge against a 10% or greater decline at a cost of less than $1,035 for a $1mm portfolio.

From early to mid week:
“The market continues in a surprisingly strong mode, all of my indicators are remarkably in strong mode.
I will not short futures or buy uvxy until the securities signal the coast is clear for shorting.
It is possible the previous spx high of 1991.39 will be surpassed, how steadfastly it is done will be interesting. There is still a high possibility of a near term intermediate top, perhaps slightly above 1992, we’ll see.”

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR MONDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
*the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14 and remains on a BUY.
the large cap indicator switched to a “BUY” on Friday, 2014/08/15, currently at +10, unchanged from the last session. .
the qqq indicator is on a BUY +8, up 1 from the last session.
the gold indicator is on a SELL at -8, down 2 from the last session..
the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory, but is in slightly overbought territory.
the heaven/hell crash indicator is at a bullish +8 as of Friday, 2014/08/15, up 2 from last Friday. This reading is usually bullish for the next five days about 70-80% of the time. A -10 reading predicts a start of a crash ala 2008 within days to a few weeks .
all other long term equity indicators remain on a buy.

THIS WEEK’S and LAST WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/0822 closed the last two esu14 contracts at 1986.00,holding on 2014/08/18 bought 2 contracts at 1950.25, for a 37.20% profit on margin or $3,572.
ESU14: on 2014/08/20 closed 2 esu14 contracts at 1977.00 for a 22.65% profit on margin or a $2,175 profit.
JNUG: on 2014/08/20 closed a 5% long alloc. of jnug at 24.45, on 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc. was bought at 26.67, for a 8.32% loss/$4,162 loss.
*TZA: on 2014/08/20 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. at 14.96, on 2014/08/15 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 1.64%/$821 profit.
SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 calls at 3.00, on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.), for a 82.37%/$542 profit..
ESU14: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 esu longs at 1973.00, one was long from 1952.25, for a $1037.5 profit; three were long from 1950.25, for a $2,375 profit. A total 17.77% profit on margin.
TZA: on 2014/08/19 closed a 5% short alloc. of tza at 14.84, on 2014/0815 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 2.43%/$1,215 profit.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/18 closed 8 at 1963.25, on 2014/08/18 originally bought 25 (now hold 8) at 1934.50, for a profit of $11,500 or 29.9% profit on margin, or a 1.15% profit on total portfolio.

Last week’s closed trades:
ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% profit on total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
• NFLX: buying a 5% alloc for intermediate term play at mkt 20 hours ago
• CIG: closed at 8.77 1 day ago
CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: includes 5 long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each folio was originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term positions in “current holdings” and hedgehog folio(s). the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. Does not include sub account.

64.0% invested, down from prior session.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS IN $1MM PORTFOLIO AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/22:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
*1. ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): flat.
1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :flat.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
*5.JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. at 24.45.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: flat.
8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
*10. NFLX: 5.0% long. On 2014/08/21 bought a 5% alloc. of nflx at 472.10 per tweet.
11. TSLA: flat.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. FB. Flat.
14. SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, SEPT. 2014 1775 puts: on 2014/0818 bought 12 at 0.75, on 2014/08/20 bought 3 at 0.45

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/08/25 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): flat.
SHORTING 25 CONTRACTS WHEN SPX BREAKS 1977.50.
*1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): flat. Buying (not shorting) a 20% alloc. at 25.07.
2. NUGT: flat. No signal.
3. TNA: flat. No signal.
3A. TZA: flat. No signal.
4. SPXL: flat. No signal.
4A.: SPXA: flat. No signal.
5. JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. of jnug at 24.45. no stop.
5A. JDST: flat. No signal.
*6.TWTR: flat. Buying a 5.0% alloc. at 48.08.
7. FB: flat. No signal.
8. PLUG: flat. No signal.
9. AAPL: flat. No signal.
10. NFLX: 5.0% long at 472.10 per real time tweet. 448.55 stop.
*11. TSLA: buying a 5.0% alloc. at 267.28.
12. GOGO: flat. No signal.
*13. FB: buying a 5.0% alloc. at 76.77.
14. SPY, Sept. 2014, 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, Sept. 1775 puts (insurance against randomness and stupidity): long 10 at 0.75. long 3 at 0.45. no stop yet.

*HEDGEHOG A:
As of 2014/08/14 short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv (not tza) at 43.18.

HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.

ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

The $10,000 NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT (until I run dry of patience trading and monitoring it):
(*) indicates a change in holdings, stop or strategy.
1. WPCS: flat.
*2. SUMR:flat.
3. PAM: flat.
*4. AMKR: flat..
*5. PLNR: flat..
6. CIG: flat.
*7. UVXY: flat. for monday buying (not shorting) 50 at 25.07.
*8. SPY September 192 Puts: buying 2 at a limit of 1.20, buying 3 at a limit of 0.80.

CLOSED $10 K SUB ACCOUNT TRADES:
*denotes a new closed trade for today.
*PLNR: on 2014/08/22 closed 250 plnr at 4.35 per tweet, bought 400 at 4.16 on 2014/08/19, for a 4.56%/$47.50 profit..
*AMKR: on 2014/08/22 closed 100 amkr at 10.00 per tweet, long 100 at 9.68 on 2014/08/19, for a 2.45%/$24 profit.
*SUMR: on 2014/08/22 closed 240 SUMR at 4.69, on 2014/08/19 bought 240sumr at 4.08, for a 14.85%/$146 profit.
WPCS: on 2014/08/21 closed 890 at 1.02, on 2014/08/19 bought 890 at1.12, for a 8.92%/$89 loss.
PAM: on 2014/08/21 closed 100 at 9.19, on 2014/08/19 bought 100 at 9.76, for a 5.84%/$57 loss.
CIG: on 2014/08/21 closed 120 at 8.77, on 2014/08/19 bought 120 at 8.64, for a 1.50%/%15.60 profit.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.



Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner. Readers should not attempt to mimic my trades as they can be volatile and financially hazardous.

The “Big Tops, Part III” roadmap for monday 2014/08/018, featuring standard_and_poor.

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/08/17, AND PLAN FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 1955.06, -0.12, -0.01%

B wave rally continues.
Spx 1975-1985 is resistance.
All short term indicators continue improving.
The Elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on Thursday, 2014/0813..
The long term heaven/hell, which I usually only calculate on Friday’s, is today at +6, down 2 from Thursday but usually favorable for the next 5 days.
On Thursday’s update I stated “at spx 1965 wave 3 of b is equal to wave 1, an ideal place to begin taking profits in cases of uncertainty, I will be closing only six of the twenty-five esu14 longs when spx hits 1967. Raising the stop to break even on remaining esu14 longs.”
Friday’s high was 1964.04.

From a few days ago:
“I am still expecting an intermediate term correction that likely will not be the straight down garden variety, a large abc flat is a possibility. “a” wave MAY HAVE BOTTOMED ON THURSDAY AT 1904.78 SPX. A brief rally to about 1967 is possible at the minimum. If we falter at spx 1985 I don’t expect further rallying and a resumption of my spx 1975-1985 intermediate top count down will remain in force. Satisfaction of market top prediction is not the point. The point is to profit from both ends of the spectrum – long and short.”

For Monday, I plan to take profits on 8 of my current 16 esu14 contracts, I still consider the 1975-85 a possible killer zone. The rally may continue past my 1975-85 resistance, if so I can always hop back on for the ride up. I might buy some some insurance in this area in the form of some September spx out of the money puts, spending no more than 1% of portfolio in insurance.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR FRIDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
*the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14.
*the large cap indicator switched to a “BUY” on Friday, currently at +7, +7 from the last session.
*the qqq indicator is on a BUY +8 , up 2 from the last session.
the gold indicator is on a BUY at 0, down 8 from the last session.
the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory.
the heaven/hell crash indicator is at a bullish +6 as of Friday, 2014/08/08. a -10 signal predicts a crash ala 2008.
all other long term equity indicators remain on a buy.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% of total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.

For the week of 2014/08/15 the closed net profit was $14,000 (friday’s closed esu) + $32,469 from several other prior closed trades for a 4.65% profit on original total portfolio for the week.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: includes 4 (2 of which were added this week) long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term and intermediate term postions in “current holdings”. the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period.

61.6% invested, up from prior session.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/15:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1. ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): holding 9 long contracts from 1934.5 and 7 contracts from 1950.25. originally, on 2014/08/11/ bought 25 contracts of esu14 at 1934.50, on 2014/08/15 bought an addl. 7 contracts of esu14 at 1950.25.l, on 2014/08/15 closed 16 contracts at 1952.00 for a profit of $14,000, or 18.2% of margin or 1.40% of total portfolio.
1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :flat.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
*3A. TZA: 10% short. On 2014/08/15 shorted at 15.21.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
5.JNUG: 5% long. On 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc was made at 26.67.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: flat.
8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: 2flat.
10. NFLX: flat.
11. TSLA: flat.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.).

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/08/18 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): long 16 contracts ( a 12.0% cash allocation for margin , each es point is $50. Raising stop to spx (not esu14) 1941.00.taking profits on 8 contracts at spx 1965.00.
1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): flat.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
*3A. TZA: flat. 10% short.
4. SPXL: flat.
4A.: SPXA: flat
5. JNUG: 5% long. 2346 stop. Shorting a 5% alloc. at 23.46.
5A. JDST: flat.
6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: flat.
8. PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
10. NFLX: flat.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. SPY, Sept. 2014, 197 CALLS: no stop on current long calls.
Until further notice:
a.)buying 8 at between 1.01 and 1.50 until 2 week’s prior to option expiration date.
b.)buying 15 at between 0.51 and 1.00 until 2 week’s prior to option expiration.
c.)buying 30 at under .51 until 2 week’s prior to option expiration,sept. 05. option exp. is sept. 19.
if all options are purchased and expire worthless, maximum loss will be less than 0.45% of total portfolio or less than 1/2 of 1% of total portfolio.

*HEDGEHOG A:
Short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv (not tza) at 43.18.

HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.

ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. i attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.

Disclaimer:

the “Big Tops Part II” roadmap for monday, 2014/08/11, featuring standard_and_poor:

MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/08/08, AND PLAN FOR MONDAY AND THE COMING WEEK:
SPX: 1931.59, +22.02, +1.15%

I was expecting a longer time scale for the spx rout , at least until the Russell 2000 satisfied its 1085 target. the proprietary smart money indicator flipped to a buy on Friday. The smart money indicator sometimes remains on a buy as the market continues to drop therefore, I am only using about 12% of cash to buy spx futures contracts for Monday and am closing most of my shorts.

I am still expecting an intermediate term correction that likely will not be the straight down garden variety, a large abc flat is a possibility. “a” wave MAY HAVE BOTTOMED ON THURSDAY AT 1904.78 SPX. A brief rally to about 1967 is possible at the minimum. If we falter at spx 1985 I don’t expect further rallying and a resumption of my spx 1975-1985 intermediate top count down will remain in force. Satisfaction of market top prediction is not the point. The point is to profit from both ends of the spectrum – long and short.

According to the heaven/hell indicator the coming week should be slightly biased to the bullish to neutral side. No crash is in the near horizon.

on 2014/08/05 the long term big-cap folio started on 2013/03/05 with $100,00 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. i will attempt to post the spread sheet in the next roadmap or you can look for the original spreadsheet in the post back in march of 2013.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR FRIDAY: (click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators.)

the elliott “PSTT” switched to a SELL on 2014/07/30 and remains on a sell.
the large cap indicator remains on a SELL since last friday’s close, today at -10, down 1 from the last session.
the qqq indicator remains on a SELL at -7 , unchanged from the last session.
the gold indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08, currently at +8, up 14 from the last session.
the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory.
the heaven/hell crash indicator is at a neutral +2 as of today, 2014/08/08. a -10 signal predicts a crash ala 2008.
all other long term equity indicators remain on a buy.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*JNUG: on 2014/08/08 a 5% short alloc. of jnug was closed at 26.25, on 2014/07/15 a 5% alloc. of jnug was shorted at 26.28, for a break even trade.
* PLUG: on 20174/08/08 closed a 2% short alloc of plug at 5.60, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of plug at 5.21, for a 7.48% loss.
SYMC: on 2014/08/07 closed a 2% short alloc of symc at 24.51, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of symc was shorted at 23.03, for a 6.42% loss.
PLUG: on 2014/07/06 closed a 1% long alloc. of plug at 5.21, on 2014/08/01 a 1% long alloc of plug bought at 5.15, for a 1.1% profit.
on 2014/08/06 closed a 1% long alloc. of plug at 5.21, on 2014/07/22 bought a 1% alloc of plug at 6.21 per tweet for a 16.10% loss.
TSLA: on 2014/08/05 closed a 5% long alloc. of tsla at 238.34 per real time tweet, on 2014/07/24 bought a a 2.5% alloc. at 225.05, forgot to post in thursday’s plan, for a 5.90% profit..

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
$SPX: proprietary smart money indicator is now on Buy. Will likely close all shorts and UVXY longs. Waiting for futures open. 9 hours ago

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: includes 2 long term folios of all long positions, each originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term and intermediate term positions in “current holdings”. the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed today with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period.
*85.50 invested, down from prior session’s 89.50% alloc.
(*) indicates a change from the prior market day.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/08:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1A: ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures): flat.
1.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :20% long. on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet. on 2014/07/28 bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: 5% short. on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of tna was closed at 68.34, on 2014/07/27 a 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a 3.26% profit.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: 5% short. on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of spxl was closed at 74.84, on 2014/07/30 shorted a 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a 3.03% profit.
4A. SPXS: flat.
*5.JNUG: flat.
6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: 2% short. on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99.
*8.PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: 2.5% short.on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29.
10. NFLX: flat.
11. TSLA: flat.
12. GOGO: 2.5% short. on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35.
13. DISCA: on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2% alloc. of disca at a reverse split adjusted 41.14.
14. AKAM: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87.
15. FISV: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43.
16. BBY: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12.
17. ISRG: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98.
18. BRCM: flat.
19. STX: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07.
20. CERN: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04.
21. INTC: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76.
22. MU: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24.
23. SBUX: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet.
24. SYMC: flat.
25. ROST: flat.
26. EQIX: 2.0% short. on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99.
27. NTAP: flat.
28. CTXS: flat.

THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/08/11 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in holdings, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*** CLOSING ALL FOLLOWING OPEN POSITIONS AT MONDAY’S OPEN EXCEPT UVXY,TNA AND SPXL.
*1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): flat. Buying 25 contracts ( a 12.0% cash allocation on 10:1 margin) at cash mkt. open.
*1. UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage):20% long. Stop raised to 34.46 on all 20% allocation..
2. NUGT: flat. no signal.
*3. TNA: 5% short. Stop lowered to 68.96.
3A. TZA: flat.
*4. SPXL: 5% short. stop lowered to 72.84.
*5. JNUG: flat. Buying a 5% alloc. at 26.95..
6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: 2.0% short. no stop.
*8. PLUG: flat.
9. AAPL: 2.5% short. no stop.
10. NFLX: flat. no signal.
11. TSLA: 2.5% long. no stop.
12. GOGO: 2.5% short. no stop.
13. DISCA: 2.0% short.
14. AKAM: 2.0% short. no stop.
15. FISV: 2.0% short. no stop.
16. BBY: 2.0% short. no stop.
17. ISRG: 2.0% short. no stop.
18. BRCM: 2.0% short. no stop.
19. STX: 2.0% short. no stop.
20. CERN: 2.0% short. 57.49 stop.
21. INTC: 2.0% short. no stop.
22. MU: 2.0% short. no stop.
23. SBUX: 2.0% short. no stop.
24. SYMC: flat.
25. ROST: flat.
26. EQIX: 2.0% short.
27. NTAP: flat.
28. CTXS: flat.

HEDGEHOG A:
no positions yet.

HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.

ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. i attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.

Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner.

the “BIG TOPS” roadmap for monday, 2014/08/04, featuring standard_and_poor:a

ROADMAP FOR MONDAY, 2014/08/04, AND THE COMING WEEK:
SPX:1925.15, -5.52, -0.29%

MY PUBLICLY POSTED INTERMEDIATE TERM TARGET OF SPX 1975-1985 OBTAINED!

on thursday, 2014/07/24 the highest closing high of the year printed at 1987.98.
spx short term supports of 1965.0 broke wednesday and 1952 broke nicely thursday.
i remain mostly short with tight stops. unless the market gaps open much higher i am guaranteed at least break even trades on my 15% long uvxy, 5% short tna and my 5% short spxl trades.
my intermediate proprietary smart money indicator is approaching BUY mode; therefore, lowering of stops to break even levels is a prudent thing to continue doing.
i closed half of the following: uvxy longs, tna shorts and spxl shorts all with profits on thursday morning as many traders were selling longs. i will be adding more uvxy longs and tna shorts but the market will need to further prove itself for such orders to be activated. the first 3-5 trading days of a new month are generally bullish this is another reason for watching profits on shorts very attentively. due to the aproaching of the smart money indicator to an almost buy territory (it can remain on buy through a sharp decline at times) for monday i am spreading the risk aroung amond several new securities as i add more shorts rather than through additional purchases of uvxy longs – there will be time for that later, if and when the heaven/hell approaches -10.

with the intermediate to long term heaven/hell crash indicator at -2 this friday there is plenty of time to align myself with +100% shorts once a -10 signal is fired.

if the cascade in the stock market continues, surely gold shall serve as a refuge for much meandering cash, entering a break even stop on some jnug shorts is also in order.

if you aren’t subscribing to my real time twitter tweets i suggest you consider.

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS: (click on about button at top of blog page for a brief description of my indicators)
the elliott “PSTT” switched to a SELL on 2014/07/30.
the large cap indicator remains on a SELL since last friday’s close, today at -9, unchanged from yesterday.
the qqq indicator remains on a SELL at 0, unchanged from yesterday.
the gold indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/07/30 , currently at 0, unchanged from yesterday.
the intermediate term smart money indicator after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory is finally approaching buy levels, close , but not there yet.
the heaven/hell crash indicator is at a bullish -2, down 8 from last friday. a -10 signal predicts a crash ala 2008.
all other long term equity indicators remain on a buy.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : day trade: on 2014/08/01 a 5% long alloc. of uvxy was bought at 34.30 (per mkt. update) and closed at 34.63 (per real time tweet), for a 0.96% profit
*JNUG: on 2014/08/01 a 5% short alloc. of jnug was closed at 26.26, on 2014/07/15 a 10% alloc. of jnug was shorted at 26.28, for a break even trade.
*TWTR: day trade: on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% alloc. of twtr was shorted at 44.26 (per mkt. update) and closed at 44.66 (per real time tweet) for a 0.90% loss.
*GOGO: flat. on 2014/08/01 closed a 2.5% long alloc. of gogo at 16.18, on 2014/07/31 a 2.5% alloc. of gogo was bought at 17.07, for a 5.27% loss. day trade: on 2014/08/01 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.18 (per mkt. update) and closed same day at 16.18 (per real time tweet) for break even.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : on 2014/07/31 a 15% long alloc. of uvxy was closed at 30.04 per real time tweet, on 2014/07/27 a 30% long alloc. of uvxy was bought at 27.01, for a profit of 11.21%.
TNA: on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of tna was closed at 68.34, on 2014/07/27 a 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a 3.26% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of spxl was closed at 74.84, on 2014/07/30 shorted a 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a 3.03% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/07/30 closed a 10% alloc. of spxl longs at 77.17, on 2014/07/23 bought a 10% long alloc. at 79.21, for a 2.57% loss.
PEIX: on 2014/07/27 a 2.5% long alloc. of peix was closed at 17.93, on 2014/06/06 a 2.5% long alloc. of peix was bought at 14.01, for a 27.98% profit.
TZA: on 2014/07/27 a 10% short alloc. of tza was closed at 15.77, on 2014/07/24 shorted a 10% alloc. at 14.84, for a 6.26% loss.
FB: on 2014/07/27 a 1% long alloc. of fb was closed at 75.48, on 2014/07/22 a 1% long alloc. of fb was bought at 69.76 per twitter.tweet, for a 8.19% profit.

TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
UVXY , This morning’s 5% long alloc closed at 34.63. 1 day ago
TWTR, 44.66 just closed shorts. 1 day ago
UVXY , closing addl 5% longs if it does not close at 36.00 minimum. TNA, cancelling addl short order. 1 day ago

CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: includes 3 long term folios of all long positions, each originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term and intermediate term postions in “current holdings”.
*64.5, down from yeserday’s 71.00% equity exposure.
(*) indicates a change from the prior market day.

THE CURRENT HOLDINGS AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/01:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
1A: ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures): flat.
*1.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :15% long.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: 5% short. on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of tna was closed at 68.34, on 2014/07/27 a 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a 3.26% profit.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: 5% short. on 2014/07/31 a 5% short alloc. of spxl was closed at 74.84, on 2014/07/30 shorted a 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a 3.03% profit.
4A. SPXS: flat.
*5.JNUG: 5% short. on 2014/08/01 a 5% short alloc. of jnug was closed at 26.26, on 2014/07/15 a 10% alloc. of jnug was shorted at 26.28, for a break even trade.
*6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: flat.
*8. PLUG: 2% long. on 2014/08/01 a 1% long alloc. of plug was added at 5.15, on 2014/07/22 bought a 1% long alloc. of plug at 6.21 per twitter tweet.
*9. AAPL: 2.5% short.on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29.
10. NFLX: flat.
11. TSLA: 2.5% long. on 2014/07/24 bought a a 2.5% alloc. at 225.05, forgot to post in thursday’s plan.
*12. GOGO: flat.
13. DISCA: flat.
14. AKAM: flat.
15. FISV: flat.
16. BBY: flat.
17. ISRG: flat.
18. BRCM: flat.
19. STX: flat.
20. CERN: flat.
21. INTC: flat.
22. MU: flat.
23. SBUX: flat.
24. SYMC: flat.
25. ROST: flat.
26. EQIX: flat.
27. NTAP: flat.
28. CTXS: flat.

THE PLAN for MONDAY, 2014/08/04 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in holdings, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): flat. no signals.
*1. UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage):15% long. 27.03 stop.
2. NUGT: flat. no signal.
3. TNA: 5% short. 70.63 stop.
3A. TZA: flat.
4. SPXL: 5% short. 77.16 stop.
*5. JNUG: 5% short. no stop.
*6.TWTR: flat.
7. FB: flat. no signal.
8. PLUG: 2% long.
*9. AAPL: 2.5% short. no stop.
10. NFLX: flat. no signal.
11. TSLA: 2.5% long. no stop.
*12. GOGO: flat. adding a 2.5% short alloc. at 16.35.
*13. DISCA: flat. shorting 2% at 81.07.
*14. AKAM: flat. shorting 2% at 56.87.
*15. FISV: flat. shorting at open.
*16. BBY: flat. shorting 2% at 61.54.
17. ISRG: flat.
*18. BRCM: flat. shorting 2% @ 37.17.
*19. STX: flat. shorting 2% @ open.
*20. CERN: flat. shorting 2% @ 54.04.
*21. INTC: flat. shorting 2% @ open.
*22. MU: flat. shorting 2% at open.
*23. SBUX: flat. shorting 2% at open.
*24. SYMC: flat. shorting 2% @23.03.
25. ROST: flat.
*26. EQIX: flat. shorting 2% @ at 208.99
27. NTAP: flat.
28. CTXS: flat.

HEDGEHOG A:
no positions yet.

HEDGEHOG B:
no positions yet.

ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. i attempt to post changes via real time
twitter tweets.

click on the “ABOUT” button to the right of the “home” button at top of ocean background for indicator details.
sign up for live twitter alerts to be informed of my trades, change in tactics and to be alerted real-time when daily market updates are posted, all for educational purposes solely.
http://www.Twitter.com: @S_AND_P
to obtain real-time texts of my twitter tweets on any smart phone go to twitter.com, click on pin wheel to the left of the quill pen (same pin wheel used to sign off), click twitter “settings”, click on “mobile” to activate twitter text messaging by entering your country and phone number. no one but twitter will have access to phone numbers.

when did i originally call for a 2014 intermediate term spx top? if this turns out to be the expected top, i am not aware of anyone calling for it so far in advance, as far back as october 21, 2013 – not bad if the top does pan out. quoted directly from the 2013/10/21 roadmap, look it up your selves:
the “Good Fortune” roadmap for monday, 2013/10/21, featuring standard_and_poor
Posted on October 21, 2013 | 22 comments

after calling for the recent 1650 spx lows i have gone on to be more than 100% long. next short term top is expected to be in the spx 1778 area, i will be unloading “most” of my uvxy shorts (trade inverse to spx) in this area or in the 20 to 15.42 uvxy area which ever hits its target first, the spx 1778 or the uvxy 20 to 15.42 area. i will not attempt to short the spx 1778 area as the next short term top what ever it turns out to be will not be worth shorting, unless you are a day trader. even though we are short term overbought and there is an excessively bullish tone to equity traders’ expectations i will not attempt to short this market. the best money for the next 12 months will be made by the lazy trader who will sit idly by holding 100% long and and who will refuse to churn his account. forget all the negative doomsday preachers and have a beautiful day, let alone a beautiful year.

the long term folios continue beating their respective benchmarks.
the only short term folio is the october 2faced long folio, see last weeks comments section for a list of this folio’s stocks prior to their purchase.
october 2faced monthly longs: +2.21% today, +5.62% vs. spy benchmark +2.76% since 2013/10/14 inception.

it will pay to be a long term holder of equities this year through next year. if a trader hasn’t made much money being long this past year please do not attempt to short at any point during the next twelve months. my long term target for the next twelve months is spx 1982, as we approach spx 1900 i will attempt to further pinpoint the target in case an exit of longs is required.
you won’t need me for the next year. have a great year!

Disclaimer:
This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner.