SO, roadmap for monday, 2013/05/20, featuring standard_and_poor

the 2faced weekly longs and shorts were closed out this friday for a net profit exceeding the spy benchmark, the weekly 2faced longs and shorts were held over from the prior week for two consecutive weeks rather than one. all positions are presented prior to purchase here in the post body or in the comments section, it has no doubt proven to be a profitable methodology, here are the results:

friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/05/17
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: BUY, unchanged – still on BUY signal upon thursday’s, 2013/04/25, close at 1580 or better. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +10, up 1. BUY signal since tuesday, 4/23.prior short was as of wed., 2013/04/17. on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered; 0 is neutral. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until a neutral 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +3 , unchanged, remains neutral as of 2013/04/17. flipped to a BUY signal on wed., 2013/04/09. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. May monthly 2faced longs: +2.86% today, +9.53% since 2013/05/01 vs. $SPY long +4.55% .
system holds for an entire month.
5. May monthly 2faced shorts: +1.57% profit today, +8.09% since 2013/05/01 vs. $SPY short -4.55%.
6. weekly 2faced longs: +1.70% today, +9.77% since 2013/05/06 vs. $SPY long +3.45%.
system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: +0.29% profit today, -0.62% since 2013/05/06 vs. $SPY short -3.45%.
i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.80% today. +13.37% vs. $SPY +8.06% since 2013/03/05
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.73% today. +22.72% vs. $IWM +8.39% since 2013/03/05.
10. nano cap folio of 18 stocks: +1.66% today. +16.93% vs. $IWM +6.65% since 2013/03/15.
11. small cap B folio of 49 stocks: +1.03% today. +14.62% vs. $IWM +5.68% since 2013/03/10.
12. large cap B folio of 10 stocks: +1.637% today. +10.67% vs. $SPY +6.56% since 2013/03/29.

today’s benchmarks: $SPY +0.97%, $IWM 1.12%, $TNA +3.10%, $AAPL -0.30%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: is at +6 as of fri.,2013/05/17,still a BUY; down 2 since last friday’s +8. next update will be on 2013/05/24. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next several days to weeks for the stock market.
this indicator is more valuable as a crash indicator; i make sure i am heavily short at a -10.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
unchanged from wednesday: 95% invested: 10.0% short, 85% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza or short tna as a hedge if necessary.
see blog for today’s trade details.

D. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
i am still waiting for a good set up for adding more of $XIDE . there were many good performers today in the various long folios
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
the heavily weighted short term “PSTT” is now on a buy signal having closed above spx 1580.on 4/25.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

small cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.73% today. +22.72% vs. $IWM +8.39% since 2013/03/05:

summary: the qqq system is overbought and i wouldn’t be surprised if a slight pullback occurs prior to the next spx target of 1700. no crash of 10% or more is imminent via the heaven/hell indicator, contrary to market guru calls. bullish sentiment has backed off slightly this week as bearish sentiment has increased by an equal proportion. bullish sentiment was getting out of hand as of last week.

thanks for your patience , here’s the porno as promised:

watch for this coming week’s 2faced longs and shorts to be published prior to monday’s open.

Fascination Street, roadmap for mon., 2013/05/13, featuring standard_and_poor

the multiple stock folios continue to out perform their respective benchmarks by two to four times while the 2faced folios floundered this week:
a. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.51% today, +10.38% since 2013/03/05 vs. spy benchmark +2.34%.
b. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.16% today, +16.24% since 2013/03/05 vs. iwm benchmark +5.96%.
c. nano cap folio of 18 stocks:-2.32% today, +16.68% since 2013/03/15 vs. iwm benchmark +4.26%.
d. small cap B folio of 49 stocks: +0.90% today, +9.28% since 2013/03/10 vs. iwm benchmark +3.31%.
e. large cap B folio:+1.30% today, +8.68% since 2013/03/29 vs. spy benchmark +4.30%.

$DEXO, from forbes.com:
What’s The Story With Dex Media And Why Is It So Darn Cheap?

“The following is a guest post by George Schultze, founder of Schultze Asset Management LLC, an alternative investment firm founded in 1998 that manages $231 million in assets and specializes in distressed securities. Mr. Schultze is author of The Art of Vulture Investing: Adventures in Distressed Securities Management (Wiley Finance, 2012).

Dex Media is an advertising company formed when the two main firms in the domestic yellow pages industry, SuperMedia (SPMD) and Dex One (DEXO), merged. Although just recently listed under ticker symbol DXM, the company has a rich operating history – to wit, SPMD had been in business for over 125 years prior to the merger while DEXO is no spring chicken either (it was founded in 1841). Dex Media a fantastic example of an extremely cheap value oriented stock with substantial upside potential.

Most people know that yellow page print advertising is a very mature business in light of today’s internet information flow available in nearly ubiquitous form. Nevertheless, both of Dex Media’s operating companies had successfully started to transition their businesses – from traditional print-based yellow page advertising over to higher margin online and digital offerings. In fact, even before their merger, each of these companies already considered themselves “premier partners” with Google GOOG +1% on account of the huge amount of daily usage traffic they drove to that company’s website. Going forward, their combination brings additional internet traffic synergies as well as important local business content to Google.

Pro forma for the merger, the combined company generated $460 MM in nicely growing digital revenues, out of $2.6 BN in total, during 2012. Although the remaining print business is in a steady state of decline, the combined businesses generated good cash flow with attractive EBITDA margins of over 41% in the quarter ended March 31, 2013. Additionally, this business requires very little capital investment – for the quarter just ended, the combined companies only spent $5.6 MM in capital expenditures. This compared with over $239 MM in cash flow as measured by adjusted EBITDA.

As we’ve witnessed in other industries experiencing secular change (such as the newspaper industry and the plain old wire line phone industry), the primary challenge for DXM’s management is to continue transitioning the business as quickly as possible, while maintaining a sharp focus on reducing legacy operating costs. Of course, managing change in an industry like this is never easy. Even so, the merger of these two firms through joint bankruptcy proceedings gives the combined entity a major head start towards achieving these goals.

Interestingly, the combination was also designed to preserve approximately $1.8 billion in net operating loss carryforwards (“NOLs) and other tax assets previously owned by DEXO. As a result, the combined entity will see substantially-reduced corporate taxes going forward on account of these assets. In fact, the tax asset owned by DEXO prior to the merger also helped justify the uneven 60%/40% equity split (instead of an even 50%/50% deal).

Today, management projects that the new company (DXM) will achieve $150-175 MM in synergies by eliminating excess overhead, IT, sales, and digital/print costs. In addition, it expects to benefit from a larger scale (through increased purchasing power/ad presence), increased offerings, tax benefits, and better cash flow/deleveraging opportunities going forward…”

the small cap folio from 2013/03/058:

friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/05/10
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: BUY, unchanged – still on BUY signal upon thursday’s, 2013/04/25, close at 1580 or better. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +7, down 1. BUY signal since tuesday, 4/23.prior short was as of wed., 2013/04/17. on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered; 0 is neutral. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until a neutral 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +3 , down 1, remains neutral as of 2013/04/17. flipped to a BUY signal on wed., 2013/04/09. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. May monthly 2faced longs: +0.72% today,+ 1.59% since 2013/05/01 vs. +2.34% for spy long benchmark.
system holds for an entire month.
5. May monthly 2faced shorts: -0.78% loss today, +0.90% since 2013/05/01 vs. spy short benchmark -2.34%.
6. weekly 2faced longs: +0.76% today, +3.06% since 2013/05/06 vs. spy long benchmark +1.26%.
system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: +0% profit today, -1.87% loss since 2013/05/06 vs. spy short benchmark -2.04%.
i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.51% today, +10.38% since 2013/03/05 vs. spy benchmark +2.34%.
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.16% today, +16.24% since 2013/03/05 vs. iwm benchmark +5.96%.
10. nano cap folio of 18 stocks:-2.32% today, +16.68% since 2013/03/15 vs. iwm benchmark +4.26%.
11. small cap B folio of 49 stocks: +0.90% today, +9.28% since 2013/03/10 vs. iwm benchmark +3.31%.
12. large cap B folio:+1.30% today, +8.68% since 2013/03/29 vs. spy benchmark +4.30%.

today’s benchmarks: $SPY +0.33%, $IWM +0.76%, $TNA +2.58%, $AAPL -0.83%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: is at +8 as of fri.,2013/05/10,a solid BUY; unchanged since last friday’s +8. next update will be on 2013/05/17. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next several days to weeks for the stock market.
this indicator is more valuable as a crash indicator; i make sure i am heavily short at a -10.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
unchanged from thursday: 95% invested: 10.0% short, 85% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza or short tna as a hedge if necessary.
see blog for today’s trade details.

D. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
i am still waiting for a good set up for adding more of $XIDE and $SNFCA. there were many good performers today in the various long folios. i will likely stop trading the weekly 2faced shorts but continue posting the selected stocks.
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
the heavily weighed short term “PSTT” is now on a buy signal having closed above spx 1580.on 4/25.

E. new trading system – the sparrow: ( to be updated next week).
the following stocks are to be purchased or sold short in the new sparrow folio, a 1% allocation of each: no changes from friday.
SYMBOL BUY STOP/SHORT STOP, SELL AND REVERSE STOP
1. CZR Caesars Entertainment Corporation long from 13.99 after, stopped out of 13.72 short.
2. AMRI Albany Molecular Research Inc. long@ 10.51.
3. NFLX Netflix, Inc. . no signal.
4. ANGI Angie’s List, Inc. long form @20.37. stop and reverse is 19.41
5. PBYI Puma Biotechnology, Inc. short from 30.66.
6. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. long from 27.80.
7. SNTS Santarus, Inc. now long from 16.54. stop and reverse raised to 16.89, take profits @20.71 on 1/2 (taken on tuesday 5/6).
8. PRO PROS Holdings, Inc. long from 27.30.
9. MGAM Multimedia Games Inc. long from 21.41, taking half profits at friday open and raising stop to 21.41.
10. AAPL Apple Inc. long from 444.00. stop raised to 444.00.

the stop and reverse for shorting same stock for easy following is 20% below entry. the stops and reverse will usually be raised within one day of entry on longs and lowered on shorts. i sell 1/2 of position upon a 20% profit or so and at that point adjust stop to break even on remaining half position. 80% of time we will be taking profits before reverse stop is hit.

i trade the sparrow system differently by adjusting sell stops throughout the day but the method using the 20% stop is the easiest way to follow.
this system also shorts the same stocks at overbought levels.

average trade lasts two to three weeks and compounds profits.

this system is always in the market, either long or short. that is why a protective stop is referred as the “stop and reverse”. protective stops and reverse stops are the same, once i am stopped out of a long position i also open a short position at the stop price. all stocks are optionable and shortable.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

summary:1700 spx is next target with a possible pullback to 1600 first.

breaking like the waves at Malibu… roadmap for monday: 2013/05/06

the 2faced weekly and monthly systems performance was consistent with the overall profitably of the last few months.
a.May monthly 2faced longs: +1.26% today.+2.58% since wed., 5/01/13 vs. spy long +1.01%.
system holds for an entire month.
b. May monthly 2faced shorts: +0.24% today. +2.33% since wed., 5/01/13 vs. spy short -1.01%.
c. weekly 2faced longs: +0.83% today. +3.75% for the week vs. spy long +1.98%.
system holds longs for a full week.
d. weekly 2faced shorts: -1.30% loss today. +2.16% for the week vs. spy short -1.98%.

the abc side ways correction referred to in the last 2 posts has completed in a truncated c wave. the elliott wave trend is clearly bullish since the elliott PSTT buy signal on thursday, 2013/04/25. next target is spx 1700 (edited 2:41 a.m. : next spx target of 1650 is more reasonable upon further examination) the heaven/hell crash indicator gives a very low probability to any near term crash.

i am still looking for a low risk entry for the gold miners, $NUGT, perhaps a 20% allocation.
i am using a 13.01 buy stop for the next few days, watch the comments for any changes.

friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/05/03
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: BUY, unchanged – still on BUY signal upon thursday’s, 2013/04/25, close at 1580 or better. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +9,up 5. BUY signal since tuesday, 4/23.prior short was as of wed., 2013/04/17. on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered; 0 is neutral. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until a neutral 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +5 , unchanged, remains neutral as of 2013/04/17. flipped to a BUY signal on wed., 2013/04/09. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. May monthly 2faced longs: +1.26% today.+2.58% since wed., 5/01/13 vs. spy long +1.01%.
system holds for an entire month.
5. May monthly 2faced shorts: +0.24% today. +2.33% since wed., 5/01/13 vs. spy short -1.01%.
6. weekly 2faced longs: +0.83% today. +3.75% for the week vs. spy long +1.98%.
system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: -1.30% loss today. +2.16% for the week vs. spy short -1.98%.
shorts are held for a full week.

i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.47% today. +7.98% to date since 2013/03/05 vs. spy benchmark +4.45%.
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +1.99% today. +10.32% since 2013/03/05 vs. iwm benchmark +3.70%.
10. nano cap folio of 18 stocks:+1.49% today. +14.50% since 2013/03/08 vs. iwm benchmark +3.00%.
11. small cap B folio:+1.14% today. +8.62% since 2013/03/10 vs. iwm benchmark +1.10%.
12. new large cap B folio: 1.38% today. +4.68% since 2013/03/29 vs. spy benchmark +3.00%.

today’s benchmarks: $SPY +1.01%, $IWM +1.59%, $TNA +4.84%, $AAPL +1.00.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: is now at +8 as of fri.,2013/05/03,a BUY; down 1 since last friday’s +9. next update will be on 2013/05/10. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next several days to weeks for the stock market.
this indicator is more valuable as a crash indicator; i make sure i am heavily short at a -10.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
unchanged from thursday: 95% invested: 10.0% short, 85% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza or short tna as a hedge if necessary.
see blog for today’s trade details.

D. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
the heavily weighed short term “PSTT” is now on a buy signal having closed above spx 1580.on 4/25.

E. new trading system – the sparrow: ( to be updated next week).
the following stocks are to be purchased or sold short in the new sparrow folio, a 1% allocation of each:
SYMBOL BUY STOP/SHORT STOP, SELL AND REVERSE STOP
1. CZR Caesars Entertainment Corporation long from 13.99 after, stopped out of 13.72 short.
2. AMRI Albany Molecular Research Inc. long@ 10.51.
3. NFLX Netflix, Inc. . no signal.
4. ANGI Angie’s List, Inc. long form @20.37. stop and reverse is 19.41
5. PBYI Puma Biotechnology, Inc. short from 30.66.
6. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. long from 27.80.
7. SNTS Santarus, Inc. now long from 16.54. take half profits @ 19.85. stop and reverse raised to 16.89, take profits @20.71 on 1/2.
8. PRO PROS Holdings, Inc. long from 27.30.
9. MGAM Multimedia Games Inc. long from 21.41.
10. AAPL Apple Inc. long from 444.00.

the stop and reverse for shorting same stock for easy following is 20% below entry. the stops and reverse will usually be raised within one day of entry on longs and lowered on shorts. i sell 1/2 of position upon a 20% profit or so and at that point adjust stop to break even on remaining half position. 80% of time we will be taking profits before reverse stop is hit.

i trade the sparrow system differently by adjusting sell stops throughout the day but the method using the 20% stop is the easiest way to follow.
this system also shorts the same stocks at overbought levels.

average trade lasts two to three weeks and compounds profits.

this system is always in the market, either long or short. that is why a protective stop is referred as the “stop and reverse”. protective stops and reverse stops are the same, once i am stopped out of a long position i also open a short position at the stop price. all stocks are optionable and shortable.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell

below is the small cap 2013 folio of 47 stocks (the 48th is the benchmark $iwm), the best performer for the day was $YRCW +41.11%:

i will be taking some profits in $YRCW, here’s partly why:

new weekly 2 faced longs and shorts will be posted prior to monday’s open as will additional instructions for the sparrow system, my time, unfortunately, is limited to this project.

2013/05/06 2 a.m. : new wkly 2face longs: bldr, epl, gntx, nmr, peri, pgti, regi, tear, tzoo, uve.

new weekly 2faced shorts: adnc, brkr, cray, evep, hcsg, icge, qlgc, tza, volc.

EUREKA! roadmap for monday, 2013/04/29, featuring standard_and_poor

the 2faced folios put in a miserable performance this week , thankfully the multiple stock folios admirably filled the performance gap:
a. large cap folio of 49 stocks: -0.234% today. +4.31% since 3/15 vs. iwm +.0%
b. small cap folio of 49 stocks: -0.364% today. +7.49% since 3/10/13 vs. spy -0.89%.
c. nano cap folio of 18 stocks.-0.87% today. +12.93% since 3/15/13 vs. iwm +0.0%.
d. small cap B folio: -0.40% today. +7.49% since 3/10313 vs, iwm -0.89%.
e. large cap B folio: +0.47% today. +3.76% since 3/29/13 vs. spy +1.00%

METALS:
with the existing gloomy outlook for precious metals shared by the majority of portfolio managers it is fitting that we continue prodding for low risk entries for a long term hold.
buying a 20%-30% allocation of $NUGT @ 16.85, good for this week only. look within the comments section this coming week for any adjustments to entry and or sell stops.

STOCKS:
we are approaching the possible end point of the “b” wave mentioned last week. it is important that we close strongly above 1600 spx this coming week or the start of a “c” wave to at least 1530 spx will be a near certainty.
a strong close above 1600 this week will signal a continuous uptrend for the very near term, keeping in mind that nothing is 100%.

the following is the small cap-B folio started on 2013/03/10:

researching the possibility of additional of $XIDE purchases for the small cap folios, it is currently in the small cap(original).

per bloomberg”Bonds of Exide Technologies (XIDE), a lead-acid battery producer, plunged to the lowest level ever after California regulators ordered it to close a recycling unit because of health risks.

The company’s $674.2 million of 8.625 percent, first-lien notes due February 2018 dropped 4 cents on the dollar to 65 cents to yield 20.5 percent at 2:43 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The securities have fallen 14.3 cents since April 23.

The California Department of Toxic Substances and Control ordered the company to suspend operations at its Vernon, California, plant on April 24, alleging that the facility isn’t in compliance with the state’s health risk standards, the company said yesterday in a regulatory filing. “

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/XIDE/2446617620x0x656747/6a041bf7-cb8d-4f13-bd25-678b67de614f/XIDE_News_2013_4_25_corporate_.pdf

friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/04/26
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: BUY, unchanged – now on BUY signal upon thursday’s close at 1580 or better. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +5, down 2. BUY since a buy signal of tuesday, 4/23.prior short was as of wed., 2013/04/17. (on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered; 0 is neutral. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until a neutral 0 is surpassed).
3. smart money indicator: +6 , unchanged, remains neutral as of 2013/04/17. flipped to a BUY signal on wed., 2013/04/09. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. April monthly 2faced longs: -0.36% today, -6.02 since 3/29 vs +1.005 for spy .
system holds for an entire month.
5. April monthly 2faced shorts: +3.10% today. +7.77% since 3/29 vs. spy +1.00%
shorts are held for a full month.
6. weekly 2faced longs: -0.03% today. -0.64% since fri., 4/19, close vs. spy +1.78%. system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: +0.55% today. -3.01% for week vs. +1.78% spy. shorts are held for a full week.
i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: -0.234% today. +4.31% since 3/15 vs. iwm +.0%
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: -0.364% today. +7.49% since 3/10/13 vs. spy -0.89%.
10. nano cap folio of 18 stocks.-0.87% today. +12.93% since 3/15/13 vs. iwm +0.0%.
11. small cap B folio: -0.40% today. +7.49% since 3/10313 vs, iwm -0.89%.
12. new large cap B folio: +0.47% today. +3.76% since 3/29/13 vs. spy +1.00%

benchmarks: $SPY -0.18%, $IWM -0.54%, $TNA -1.48%, $AAPL +2.16%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: is now at +9 as of fri.,2013/04/26, BUY, having been as low as -2 on 4/17. high as +10 on wed., 2013/04/10, . next update will be on 2013/04/26. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next several days to weeks for the stock market.
this indicator is more valuable as a crash indicator; i make sure i am heavily short at a -10.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
changed from thursday: 92.5% invested: 13.0% short 79.5% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza or short tna as a hedge if necessary.
see blog for today’s trade details.

D. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
the heavily weighed short term “PSTT” is now on a buy signal having closed above spx 1580.on 4/25.
2faced systems are turning out a poor showing this week but all other multiple stock folios are beating their benchmarks by 100% to 300% or better.

E. new trading system – the sparrow: ( to be updated by monday’s,4/29,open).
the following stocks are to be purchased or sold short in the new sparrow folio, a 1% allocation of each:
SYMBOL BUY STOP/SHORT STOP, SELL AND REVERSE STOP
1. CZR Caesars Entertainment Corporation now short from 13.72, stop and reverse to long @13.99. taking full position profits at monday open (out @12.21 for an 11.0% profit). went long tue. 4/23 @ 14.02, took half profits @ 163.82 and raised stop to 14.02 on remaining half position.
2. AMRI Albany Molecular Research Inc. short@ 9.39. stop and reverse to long @ 10.39. 4/23: stopped out of shorts , went long@ 10.51.
3. NFLX Netflix, Inc. . go long @ 182.55. 4/23:gap up trade not taken
4. ANGI Angie’s List, Inc. now long @20.37. stop and reverse raised to 18.94.
5. PBYI Puma Biotechnology, Inc. long form 34.72 . stop and reverse to short at 30.66.
6. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. go short @ 23.01
7. SNTS Santarus, Inc. now long from 16.54. take half profits @ 19.85. stop and reverse raised to 16.89, take profits @20.71 on 1/2.
8. PRO PROS Holdings, Inc. short @ 24.60 (short on 4/18) reverse to long @ 25.73. taking half profits at monday open (out of half for a 3.037% profit). remaining 1/2 short closed on mon.,4/22, at 24.60. went long 4/25 @25.73.
9. MGAM Multimedia Games Inc. go short @ 18.88.
10. AAPL Apple Inc. no signal.

the stop and reverse for shorting same stock for easy following is 20% below entry. the stops and reverse will usually be raised within one day of entry on longs and lowered on shorts. i sell 1/2 of position upon a 20% profit or so and at that point adjust stop to break even on remaining half position. 80% of time we will be taking profits before reverse stop is hit.

i trade the sparrow system differently by adjusting sell stops throughout the day but the method using the 20% stop is the easiest way to follow.
this system also shorts the same stocks at overbought levels.

average trade lasts two to three weeks and compounds profits.

this system is always in the market, either long or short. that is why a protective stop is referred as the “stop and reverse”. protective stops and reverse stops are the same, once i am stopped out of a long position i also open a short position at the stop price. all stocks are optionable and shortable.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell

this weeks’s new 2faced longs and shorts will be posted prior to monday’s open.

a very overlooked but savagely good eurythmics album:

2013/04/29:
the new weekly 2faced longs are;bebe, csiq, jaso, llen, pzzi, rit, rvlt, tsro thrx, uve.

the new weekly 2faced shorts are: cgi, im, inap, itri, keg, nte, ofix, pfmt, pmcs, yzc.

“i’d love to change the world” but not with bombs. roadmap for mon., 2013/04/22 featuring standard_and_poor

another failed attempt to spx 1600′s is possible in “b” wave fashion followed by a resumption to 1540 or possibly lower to complete a “c” wave – to be followed by new highs above 1600 spx is the scenario i’m currently allowing for. i expect to not be adding longs until this scenario is clarified. over trading will lead to unnecessary losses in this round. no long term or medium term damage to the stock market is expected but one has to be prepared for the worst in any event. multiple stock folios will be kept intact except for the new sparrow trades. in summary, a strong upcoming week might be expected prior to a resumption of the current down trend.

friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/04/19
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: is officially now in SELL mode since thursday, 2013/04/18, last buy signal was when spx closed above 1520 on monday, 2013/03/04. the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: -7 , unchanged, on a SELL SHORT as of wed., 2013/04/17. (on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until 0 is surpassed).
3. smart money indicator: +6 , up 1, remains neutral as of 2013/04/17. flipped to a BUY signal on wed., 2013/04/09. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. April monthly 2faced longs: +1.87% today. -6.77% to date. system holds for an entire month.
5. April monthly 2faced shorts: -2.33% today. +9.83% profit to date. shorts are held for a full month.
6. new weekly 2faced longs: no trades this week. system holds longs for a full week.
7. new weekly 2faced shorts: no trade this week. shorts are held for a full week.
i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +.073% today. +2.13% to date vs +0.64 for spy since 2013/03/05.
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.57% today. -0.43% vs. -0.84% for iwm since 2013/03/05.
10. nano cap folio: +0.97% today. +7.87% since 2013/03/08 vs. iwm -2.43%.
11.small cap B folio: 0.24% today. +2.89% since 2013/03/10 vs. -3.33% for iwm.
12 new large cap B folio: -0.58% today. +1.02% since 2013/03/29 vs. -0.76% for spy.
nano folio appears to be the most stable but most folios are beating their respective benchmarks since march initiation.

benchmarks: $SPY +0.87, $IWM +1.15%, $TNA +3.42%, $AAPL -0.39%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: is now at 0 as of fri.,2013/04/19, neutral, having been as high as +10 on wed., 2013/04/10, . next update will be on 2013/04/26. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next few weeks of the stock market.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
changed from thursday: 94% invested: 16% short 78% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza or short tna as a hedge if necessary.
see blog for today’s trade details.

D. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
the heavily weighed short term “PSTT” went on a SELL signal a sell upon a spx close below 1543 on thurs., 2013/04/18.

E. new trading system – the sparrow:
the following stocks are to be purchased or sold short in the new sparrow folio, a 1% allocation of each:
SYMBOL BUY STOP/SHORT STOP, SELL AND REVERSE STOP
1. CZR Caesars Entertainment Corporation now short from 13.72, stop and reverse to long @13.99. taking full position profits at monday open.
2. AMRI Albany Molecular Research Inc. short@ 9.39. stop and reverse to long @ 10.39.
3. NFLX Netflix, Inc. . go long @ 182.55.
4. ANGI Angie’s List, Inc. now long @20.37. stop and reverse raised to 18.94.
5. PBYI Puma Biotechnology, Inc. long form 34.72 . stop and reverse to short at 30.66.
6. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. go short @ 23.01
7. SNTS Santarus, Inc. now long from 16.54. take half profits @ 19.85. stop and reverse raised to 16.89
8. PRO PROS Holdings, Inc. short @ 24.60 (short on 4/18) reverse to long @ 25.73. taking half profits at monday open.
9. MGAM Multimedia Games Inc. go short @ 18.88.
10. AAPL Apple Inc. no signals.

the stop and reverse for shorting same stock for easy following is 20% below entry. the stops and reverse will usually be raised within one day of entry on longs and lowered on shorts. i sell 1/2 of position upon a 20% profit or so and at that point adjust stop to break even on remaining half position. 80% of time we will be taking profits before reverse stop is hit.

i trade the sparrow system differently by adjusting sell stops throughout the day but the method using the 20% stop is the easiest way to follow.
this system also shorts the same stocks at overbought levels.

average trade lasts two to three weeks and compounds profits.

this system is always in the market, either long or short. that is why a protective stop is referred as the “stop and reverse”. protective stops and reverse stops are the same, once i am stopped out of a long position i also open a short position at the stop price. all stocks are optionable and shortable.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

…..
as i glance out my window this evening ,in chicago, i notice an inch of snow atop multi colored car roofs. last year’s temps weren’t nearly as unpredictable as today’s. hmph, wasn’t it in the 70′s a few days ago? unexpected patterns in both the mkt. and weather can be dealt with modicum of precaution and warm woolen sweaters.
…..

the “2013 nano” folio of 18 stocks appears to be among the more stable of the five multiple,stock folios. it was started on 2013/03/08 has an unrealized profit of 7.87% vs. its benchmark , $IWM, loss of 2.43%.

the new weekly 2faced kongs purchased at friday’s close:

the new 2faced weekly shorts from friday’s close are:

enjoy the new addition to the blog – the sparrow system, look for it in the daily market updates.

love you all:

“wilde” man across the water. roadmap for monday, 2013/04/08 featuring standard_and_poor

By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, journalism keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.

Oscar Wilde

on wednesday it was widely reported across the broad spectrum of financial news programs and market journals that the market had staged a poor showing due to the north korean’s nuclear terror tactics even though it is widely accepted in the intelligence community that north korea doesn’t have the muscle to piss across the pond.
since the journalistic community places a higher emphasis of knowing the whereabouts of the kardashians rather than the termination point of a 5th wave it is only logical that kim jong un get the blame.

the heart of the matter is that the market ($spx) and especially the $rut and the $compqx have been on a low fuel diet whipped up by its 5th wave cook which began at 1485 on 2013/02/26, perhaps there will be no 5th wave extension. it is highly likely that we will be stopped out at monday close below 1553 spx and perhaps i won’t have north korea to blame.

below is the 49 stock large cap folio which lost 0.48% on friday but is up 2.55% vs. its $spy benchmark performance of +0.43% for the same period. we will compare it’s performance again in a few months.

the weekly 2faced system of longs and shorts continues to kick out more than a 1% profit per week after slippage and expenses. that’s a minimum of 67% compounded over a year if it continues functioning. some weeks the profits have exceeded 3%. all selections for the 2faced systems are posted here in the comments section or in the post body prior to the monday open.

Friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/04/05
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: is still on a BUY signal as it closed above 1520 spx on monday, 2013/03/04, the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes. SELL SIGNAL WILL BE TRIGGERED ON A SPX MONDAY CLOSE BELOW 1553.
2. qqq indicator: -7 down 2, still on a SELL SHORT signal from 2013/04/04 (on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity. SELL SIGNAL ACTIVATED BUT WAITING FOR PSTT TO SIGNAL A SELL.
a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +5 , unchanged. remains on SELL signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. April monthly 2faced longs: -0.16% today, -3.01% for the month. system holds for an entire month.
5. April monthly 2faced shorts: +0.43 today, 4.84% profit for the month so far. shorts are held for a full month.
6. weekly 2faced longs -0.16% today,- 3.01% for the week .system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: +0.87% today, 4.93% profit for the week. shorts are held for a full week.

weekly 2faced trades closed today for a net of +1.92%.

i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: -0.48% today. +2.55% to date vs. spy +0.43%.
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.04% today. +0.49% to date vs. a loss for $iwm.
10. nano cap folio: -0.83% today. 6.00% to date vs. -1.23% for benchmark $iwm.
11.small cap B folio: +0.03% today. +3.33% to date vs. -2.13% for $iwm.
12 new large cap B folio: -0.28% today. -0.63% to date vs. -0.97% for $spy.

benchmarks: $SPY -0.45%, -0.97% for the week. , $IWM -0.20%, -0.29% for the week , $TNA -0.66%, $AAPL -1.06%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: remains a BUY at +6 (updated 2013/04/05) , unchanged versus last friday’s +6. next update will be on 2013/04/12. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next few weeks of the stock market.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
changed: 110% invested, 10% short, 100% long. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza as a hedge if necessary..
see blog for today’s trade details. increasing longs on this pullback.

.

E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
large cap techs per the QQQ system went on a SELL SHORT on thursday (2013/04/04) previous signal was a BUY on friday, 2013/03/22 after being on a SELL SHORT from wed., 2013/03/18. the heavily weighed short term “PSST” remains on a BUY.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

best performer of the week was $ANV, down 24.36%, in the april 2faced shorts. $BBY +48.2% was the best performer to date in the big cap 49 stock folio. $XIDE was the best performer today , +14.60%, in the small cap folio.

Summary:
watching spx 1553 or less close. in which case i will sell my short term tna and spxl trades and may add some tza.

cyprus plug/euro bandits: roadmap for monday, 2013/04/01, featuring standard and poor

the euro bandits are at it again and now have a precedent in place for absconding with more paper as needs arise, no wonder the current incorrectly placed fascination with bitcoins.

the monthly 2faced longs finished the month with a herculean effort, closing out the month with a 12.18% one month performance while its benchmark $SPY followed far behind with a 3.00% return. the monthly 2faced shorts were closed out with an acceptable 0.41% monthly closed profit. mind you, all stocks are posted here prior to the monday open, usually in the comments section.
closed out march 2013 2faced longs with 12.18% closed profit:

march monthly 2faced shorts closed with a 0.41% profit:

the new monthly april 2013 longs:

the new april 2013 shorts (show as buys but will be corrected):

the new large cap B folio:

Thursday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/03/28

A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: is still on a BUY signal as it closed above 1520 spx on monday, 2013/03/04, the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +8, up 5. still on a BUY (on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +6 , up 1. remains on SELL signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. March monthly 2faced longs: +1.09% today, +12.18% to date. system holds for an entire month.
5. March monthly 2faced shorts:+0.43% profit today, +0.41% to date. shorts are held for a full month.
6. weekly 2faced longs -0.05% today. +0.99% to date.system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: -0.31% loss today. shorts are held for a full week. -2.39% to date.

i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.
8. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.59% today.
9. small cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.37% today.
10. nano cap folio: -0.26% today.
11.small cap B folio: +0.72% today.

benchmarks: $SPY +0.31% , $IWM +0.13%, $TNA -0.30%, $AAPL -20.8%.

B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
heaven/hell crash indicator: remains a BUY at +6 (updated 2013/03/28) , up 2, versus last friday’s +4. next update will be on 2013/04/05. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next few weeks of the stock market.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.

C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
changed: 100% invested, 10% short, 90% long. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested with tza as a hedge if necessary..
see blog for today’s trade details. increasing longs on this pullback.

D. STOCK WATCH (flag breakouts):
LONG (FLAG) break out watch: $USCR, $NAV, $BBY.
SHORT (FLAG) break out watch: $SUPN, $CHKR $SDT .

E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
a BUY signal was triggered monday, 2013/03/04, at the close by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator. conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum it it continues working for me, i remain cautious as the 2faced neutral strategy systems are still in testing phase.
large cap techs per the QQQ system went on a BUY on friday, 2013/03/22 after being on a SELL SHORT from wed., 2013/03/18. the heavily weighed short term “PSST” remains on a BUY.

see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

summary:
next target is spx 1600-1610 by june 2013.
90% long, 10% short.
i plan to add longs on margin after a brief pullback.
small caps have been under performing relative to large caps therefore i have sold off some short term tna (15% allocation) for a small profit and have added the new large cap B folio. i will probably add a triple leveraged large cap etf soon.

long term prospects for the stock market are in line with my 2003 spring forecast of new all time highs for the spx, there is some more to come. watch the comments section for updates.

look for the new weekly 2faced longs and shorts in the comments section prior to the monday open.

this blog prides itself in giving a free account of my actionable and verifiable trades that so far have consistently worked. wealth in the long term is created by buying under valued assets and not by chasing every quick rich scheme that is made public by either bad or good intending purveyors. the more one trades the more one is liable to make a major mistake in either poor asset selection or poor money management. a few gamblers may get rich but most don’t keep it.
i am beginning to decrease short term tna trades in favor of medium term to long term folios. one of the best short term traders i am aware of is steve a. cohen, he manages several billion but concedes that he needs to change into a medium term trader. he narrowly avoided a trading fiasco in 2008-2009, luckily he recovered. steve averages 30% returns with up to 400% leverage. so don’t be overly concerned if your wealth creation is under 50% per year, it is more important to be consistently profitable. the key is to keep your wealth so that the gift of compounding can bless you and to avoid the lame brain pitfalls involved in options and other leveraged zero sum schemes. keeping a log book of all your trades will help you determine what works best for you.

it’s easy to succumb to the lure of fast money schemes, we are only flesh and blood, be strong.