MARKET UPDATE FOR FRIDAY, 2014/08/22 AND STRATEGY FOR MONDAY:
SPX: 1988.40, -3.97, -0.20%
Prepared late Sunday evening.
Below are the most recent three folios I added this month, as promised. The first two folios I gave to readers, on the day I bought them, in the daily mkt. updates. This time I decided to keep each folio at around fifteen stocks to show that it is possible to be quite profitable with under 40 stocks in a folio.
Every trader/investor should hold at least half of her portfolio in long term stock holdings, for a span of at least of a year, unless the heaven/nell indicator is signalling a crash. it will keep traders on the right track of the ledger since the market should bu rather bullish for the next several years.
Traders/investors are usually much too unrealistic in their expectations. Many young traders think 100%+ years are a realistic goal when in fact some of the world’s wealthiest investors average no more than 30-35% average returns during their life time careers Warren Buffet comes to mind. Unrealistic expectations are one of the main reasons traders take huge risks which very often turn into big losses that wipe out accounts. Don’t fall into that trap.
It is quite possible that the Thursday high of 1994.76 was the “b” wave top. I’m not expecting much more than a “c” wave down to 1900.00 spx.
My Elliott charts tell me that this market should be shorted even though all my short term indicators are still bullish, Elliott entries usually provide early entries and sometimes with the least risk… I shall continue to take a stab a shorting esu14 and buying uvxy. I continue to hold some Sept. spx puts as a hedge against a 10% or greater decline at a cost of less than $1,035 for a $1mm portfolio.
From early to mid week:
“The market continues in a surprisingly strong mode, all of my indicators are remarkably in strong mode.
I will not short futures or buy uvxy until the securities signal the coast is clear for shorting.
It is possible the previous spx high of 1991.39 will be surpassed, how steadfastly it is done will be interesting. There is still a high possibility of a near term intermediate top, perhaps slightly above 1992, we’ll see.”
A BRIEF REVIEW OF SOME PROPRIETARY INDICATORS FOR MONDAY:
(click on “ABOUT” button at top of blog page next to the ocean scene for a brief description of my indicators)
*the elliott “PSTT” switched to a BUY on 2014/08/14 and remains on a BUY.
the large cap indicator switched to a “BUY” on Friday, 2014/08/15, currently at +10, unchanged from the last session. .
the qqq indicator is on a BUY +8, up 1 from the last session.
the gold indicator is on a SELL at -8, down 2 from the last session..
the intermediate term smart money indicator switched to a BUY on 2014/08/08 after having spent a few weeks in neutral territory, but is in slightly overbought territory.
the heaven/hell crash indicator is at a bullish +8 as of Friday, 2014/08/15, up 2 from last Friday. This reading is usually bullish for the next five days about 70-80% of the time. A -10 reading predicts a start of a crash ala 2008 within days to a few weeks .
all other long term equity indicators remain on a buy.
THIS WEEK’S and LAST WEEK’S CLOSED TRADES (all trades, always reviewed, both profits and losses alike):
(*) denotes a new closed trade for today.
*ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/0822 closed the last two esu14 contracts at 1986.00,holding on 2014/08/18 bought 2 contracts at 1950.25, for a 37.20% profit on margin or $3,572.
ESU14: on 2014/08/20 closed 2 esu14 contracts at 1977.00 for a 22.65% profit on margin or a $2,175 profit.
JNUG: on 2014/08/20 closed a 5% long alloc. of jnug at 24.45, on 2014/08/12 a 5% long alloc. was bought at 26.67, for a 8.32% loss/$4,162 loss.
*TZA: on 2014/08/20 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. at 14.96, on 2014/08/15 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 1.64%/$821 profit.
SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 calls at 3.00, on 2014/08/12 bought 4 at 1.645 (avg.), for a 82.37%/$542 profit..
ESU14: on 2014/08/19 closed 4 esu longs at 1973.00, one was long from 1952.25, for a $1037.5 profit; three were long from 1950.25, for a $2,375 profit. A total 17.77% profit on margin.
TZA: on 2014/08/19 closed a 5% short alloc. of tza at 14.84, on 2014/0815 shorted an original 10% alloc. at 15.21, for a 2.43%/$1,215 profit.
ESU14: (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/18 closed 8 at 1963.25, on 2014/08/18 originally bought 25 (now hold 8) at 1934.50, for a profit of $11,500 or 29.9% profit on margin, or a 1.15% profit on total portfolio.
Last week’s closed trades:
ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): on 2014/08/15 closed 16 long contracts, at 1952.00, on 2014/08/11 bought 25 contracts of esu14 contracts at 1934.50, for a profit of $14,000 or 18.52% of margin or 1.40% profit on total portfolio.
UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 15% alloc at 33.27, on 2014/07/28, bought an original 30% alloc. of uvxy at 27.01, for a profit of $34,759/23.17%. on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% long uvxy alloc. at 33.27, on 2014/08/05 bought a 5% long alloc. of uvxy at 36.40 per real time tweet, for a $4,295/8.59% loss.
TNA: on 2014/08/11 closed a remaining 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/27 an original 10% alloc. of tna was shorted at 70.68, for a $625/1.25% profit.
SPXL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 5% short alloc. of tna at 69.76, on 2014/07/30 shorted a original 10% alloc. of spxl at 77.18, for a $1690/3.38% profit.
FB: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. of fb at 73.47, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of fb at 71.99, for a $524/2.62% loss.
AAPL: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2% short alloc. at 95.29, on 2014/08/01 a 2.5% short alloc. of aapl was added at 95.29, for a break even trade.
GOGO: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.5% short alloc. at 15.55, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2.5% alloc. of gogo at 16.35, for a $978/4.89% profit.
DISCA: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 42.29, on 2014/08/07 shorted a 2.0% alloc. of disca
at a split adjusted 41.14, for a $558/2.79% loss.
AKAM: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.58, on 2014/08/04 shorted a 2% alloc of akam at 56.87, for a $246/2.02% loss.
FISV: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 61.40, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of fisv was shorted at 61.43, for a break even trade.
BBY: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 29.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of bby was shorted at 29.12, for a $404/2.02% loss.
ISRG: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 442.88, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc. of isrg at 445.98, for a break even trade.
STX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 57.21, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of stx was shorted at 58.07, for $296/3.49% profit.
CERN: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 55.93, on 2014/08/06 shorted a 2% alloc of cern at 54.04, for a$698/3.49% loss.
INTC: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 32.84, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc of intc was shorted at 33.76. for a $544/2.72% profit.
MU: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc at 30.28, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% alloc. of mu was shorted at 31.24, for a %614/3.07% profit.
SBUX: on 2014/08/11 closed a 2.0% short alloc. at 77.71, on 2014/08/04 a 2.0% of sbux was shorted at 77.27 per tweet, for a $112/0.56% loss.
EQIX: on 2014/08/11 closed a2.0% short alloc. at 210.57, on 2014/08/05 shorted a 2% alloc. at 208.99, for a $150/0.75% loss.
TODAY’S REAL TIME TWEETS:
• NFLX: buying a 5% alloc for intermediate term play at mkt 20 hours ago
• CIG: closed at 8.77 1 day ago
CURRENT TOTAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: includes 5 long term folios of all long positions to be held for at least one year, each folio was originally a 10% long allocation, and the following short term positions in “current holdings” and hedgehog folio(s). the bigcap folio started on 2013/03/05 was closed with a 48.06% profit versus spy’s +25.50% gain during the same period. Does not include sub account.
64.0% invested, down from prior session.
THE CURRENT HOLDINGS IN $1MM PORTFOLIO AS OF FRIDAY’S CLOSE, 2014/08/22:
all trades are triggered by my nightly mkt. update plan unless noted other wise.
(*) denotes a change in holdings from prior trading day’s close.
*1. ESU14 (s&p 500 e-mini futures, each point is worth $50.00): flat.
1A.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) :flat.
2. NUGT: flat.
3. TNA: flat.
3A. TZA: flat.
4: SPXL: flat.
4A. SPXS: flat.
*5.JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. at 24.45.
5A. JDST: flat.
7. FB: flat.
9. AAPL: flat.
*10. NFLX: 5.0% long. On 2014/08/21 bought a 5% alloc. of nflx at 472.10 per tweet.
11. TSLA: flat.
12. GOGO: flat.
13. FB. Flat.
14. SPY, SEPT. 2014 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, SEPT. 2014 1775 puts: on 2014/0818 bought 12 at 0.75, on 2014/08/20 bought 3 at 0.45
THE PLAN for MONDAY 2014/08/25 (current holdings,trade signal/plan, protective stops):
(*) denotes a change in position, trade signal/plan or protective stop from prior trading day’s plan.
*1A: ESU14(s&p 500 e-mini september 2014 futures): flat.
SHORTING 25 CONTRACTS WHEN SPX BREAKS 1977.50.
*1B: UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage): flat. Buying (not shorting) a 20% alloc. at 25.07.
2. NUGT: flat. No signal.
3. TNA: flat. No signal.
3A. TZA: flat. No signal.
4. SPXL: flat. No signal.
4A.: SPXA: flat. No signal.
5. JNUG: 5% short. On 2014/08/20 shorted a 5% alloc. of jnug at 24.45. no stop.
5A. JDST: flat. No signal.
*6.TWTR: flat. Buying a 5.0% alloc. at 48.08.
7. FB: flat. No signal.
8. PLUG: flat. No signal.
9. AAPL: flat. No signal.
10. NFLX: 5.0% long at 472.10 per real time tweet. 448.55 stop.
*11. TSLA: buying a 5.0% alloc. at 267.28.
12. GOGO: flat. No signal.
*13. FB: buying a 5.0% alloc. at 76.77.
14. SPY, Sept. 2014, 197 calls: flat.
15. SPX, Sept. 1775 puts (insurance against randomness and stupidity): long 10 at 0.75. long 3 at 0.45. no stop yet.
As of 2014/08/14 short a 1.0% allocation of uvxy at 24.98 and short a 3.0% allocation of tmv (not tza) at 43.18.
no positions yet.
ALL TARGETS AND STOPS MAY BE ADJUSTED INTRA-DAY AS MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I attempt to post changes via real time
The $10,000 NAPA VALLEY SUB ACCOUNT (until I run dry of patience trading and monitoring it):
(*) indicates a change in holdings, stop or strategy.
1. WPCS: flat.
3. PAM: flat.
*4. AMKR: flat..
*5. PLNR: flat..
6. CIG: flat.
*7. UVXY: flat. for monday buying (not shorting) 50 at 25.07.
*8. SPY September 192 Puts: buying 2 at a limit of 1.20, buying 3 at a limit of 0.80.
CLOSED $10 K SUB ACCOUNT TRADES:
*denotes a new closed trade for today.
*PLNR: on 2014/08/22 closed 250 plnr at 4.35 per tweet, bought 400 at 4.16 on 2014/08/19, for a 4.56%/$47.50 profit..
*AMKR: on 2014/08/22 closed 100 amkr at 10.00 per tweet, long 100 at 9.68 on 2014/08/19, for a 2.45%/$24 profit.
*SUMR: on 2014/08/22 closed 240 SUMR at 4.69, on 2014/08/19 bought 240sumr at 4.08, for a 14.85%/$146 profit.
WPCS: on 2014/08/21 closed 890 at 1.02, on 2014/08/19 bought 890 at1.12, for a 8.92%/$89 loss.
PAM: on 2014/08/21 closed 100 at 9.19, on 2014/08/19 bought 100 at 9.76, for a 5.84%/$57 loss.
CIG: on 2014/08/21 closed 120 at 8.77, on 2014/08/19 bought 120 at 8.64, for a 1.50%/%15.60 profit.
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This is my on-line trading journal. Standardpoor.wordpress.com, my on-line trading journal or blog, is purely for educational purposes only. Information from this blog and blogs that I follow (listed here) is not investment advice and should not be misconstrued as investment advice from this blog owner. Readers should not attempt to mimic my trades as they can be volatile and financially hazardous.