the elliott “PSTT” is back in the short term warning zone for longs. from the above chart you can see that the spx closed very close to an important support zone and is in danger of penetration, the last two closes show some serious distribution as well.
i am currently 50% long (3 stock folios) and 20% short tna from 59.31 this friday morning (the triple leveraged tna is a hedge) for the total portfolio.
$rut, $compq and $ndx are still in short term sell signals.
SPX LONG TERM PSTT = BUY
SPX INTERMEDIATE PSTT = BUY
SPX SHORT TERM PSTT = WARNING FOR LONGS ON VERGE OF RENEWED SELL
see comments from last two weeks to follow recent trades by clicking on the prior post, but here are a few of the pertinent comments:
Submitted on 2012/10/10 at 12:19 am
1. closed out medium risk folio of 23 stocks for a 3.59% loss on a 20% allocation. total portfolio allocation is now 50% long, reduced from 70% .
2. now short tna from 61.43, a 20% allocation.
total portfolio is now 50% long, 2o% short for a total allocation of 70%.
short tna will serve as a hedge for remaining longs and possibly also increase total profits. high risk long folio, low risk long folio and roadmap long folios are all still open.
Submitted on 2012/10/10 at 12:44 am
one more strong close down will trigger an elliott “PSTT” sell warning signal
to be likely followed by an actual sell signal.
Submitted on 2012/10/10 at 11:04 pm
sell warning on spx and dow,
elliott short term “PSTT” sell signal on $rut, $compqx and $ndx.
increasing tna shorts from 20% to 30% on an spx close below 1430 only on wednesday.
long term elloitt “psst” signal= buy
intermediate term elliott “psst” signal = buy
short term elliott “psst” signal = warning, close to sell
Submitted on 2012/10/15 at 7:03 pm
1. closed 20% allocation of tna shorts from 61.43 at 59.46 for a profit of 3.20%.
2. closed out additional 10% allocation of tna shorts from 58.60 at 59.46 for a 1.46% loss.
3. added 20% tna long allocation at 59.47, in addition to high risk folio, roadmap folio and low risk folio i am now 70% long, no shorts.
Submitted on 2012/10/18 at 10:16 pm
stopped out of nugt at 16.26 for a break even trade.
stopped out 20% allocation of tna longs from 59.47 at 61.76 for a 3.85% profit.
i am now back to 50% long , no shorts.
elliott “PSTT” is still on a renewed short term buy signal for spx from wednesday although the russell 2000 and the nasdaq are still on short term sell signals. caution is still warranted for both longs and shorts.
Submitted on 2012/10/19 at 9:47 pm
added tna shorts this morning , a 20% allocation at 59.31. now 50% long (3 stock folios) and 20% short (the triple leveraged tna as a hedge) for the total portfolio.
as you can see the low risk folio shows a profit of 3.99% versus a loss of 2.78% for its benchmark $IWM for the same period.
the other 2 folios of about 50 stocks each also are leading their respective benchmarks.
using a 57.97 stop on tna shorts for tuesday only.
just closed half of tna shorts from 59.31 at 56.66 for a 4.46% profit.
now 10% short tna and 50% long(via three folios: roadmap, low risk and high risk folios).
keeping 57.97 stop on balance of tna short for today .
balance of tna shorts from 59.31 closed at 56.95 for a 3.97% profit.
now 50% long, no shorts. looking for a short term tna buy signal for wednesday.
$JRCC as of today has taken the lead as the most profitable stock in the low risk folio with a 90.53% open profit.
currently benchmark $IWM is down 0.21% while the low risk folio is up 1.41%.
$SEH in the folio is currently up 60% todayon news that polycorp is to buy spytech for 246 million…
still waiting for tna short term trade signal. careful as “PSTT” short term signal is still on short signal.
watching 55.90 tna as a possible re-entry point for shorts, only for thursday.
no new positions taken today. watching tna long for fri. at 56.81.
also watching tna 56.84 for possible break down in general market. emphasis on short term elliott “PSTT” signal which is still on sell/short signal.
i’ll likely take a 20% short tna position to hedge 50% long portfolio, remember that tna is 300% levereged.
also looking to short nugt as close as possible to 15.48.
20% short tna from 56.83.
10% short nugt from 15.47.
now 50% long, 30% short triple leveraged etfs.
low risk folio is currently down 0.80% while benchmark $iwm is down 1.13%
1399-90 spx is very possible prior to a resumptive rally.
closed out all tna shorts from 56.83 at 56.37 for a 0.816% profit.
low risk folio today made a 0.26% profit while its iwm benchmark lost 0.48%.
50% long, 10% short nugt from 15.47.
nugt shorts from 15.47 were closed out at 16.06 on 10-27 for a 4.46% loss.
still looking for 1390-99 spx prior to any decent rally at which point i’ll likely go back to 100% long. keeping in mund that the elliott proprietary short term trend indicator “PSST” is still on a sell signal.
it is quite possible that the drop in es futures may have satisfied the drop i’ve been looking for even though spx hasn’t had a chance to retest the 1390 -99 area, we’ll see on wednesday as trading resumes.
very good day today. added some longs today; more on this later.
folios are still outpacing their benchmarks.
new tna longs added thursday morning at 57.20, a 20% stakes worth, total longs in portfolio are now 70%, no shorts.
elliott “PSTT” indicator is still on sell short signal.
waiting for further strength to increase longs to 100% once again.
$gpre was up over 25% yesterday.
today, $imh was up 31%.
low risk folio today was up 1.55% vs. its benchmark increase of 1.05%.
folio is up 9% more than its $IWM benchmark since folio purchase of 9-07-12.