currently 100% cash. sentiment and smart money data suggests that future upside is limited, i might continue to be wrong but i am unwilling to be long until an abc pull back occurs. i’m not expecting more than a 3% pullback.
we closed out 35% allocation of shorts with two losses: 8 stock folio loss of $3750 or 2.5%, tza 20% allocation loss of $12,500 or 6.25%. total $1mm portfolio is down $16,250 or 1.625% for the year; not a very celebratory way to enter the new year. calculations for new year will have a dollar figure attached rather than a percentage profit/loss of a percentage based allocation; thus one of the first changes or upgrades for the year being a more easily understood presentation of profits and losses, just as transparent but more easily understood.
Submitted on 2013/01/01 at 2:29 am:
“closed out the 15% allocation of the short folio of 8 stocks, started 2012/12/24, on mon. 20102/12/31 for a 2.50% loss vs its qqq benchmark gain of 0%.
closed out 20% allocation of tza longs from 2012/12/28 from 14.38 at at closing bell at avg. of 13.48 for a 6.25% loss.
it is now possible we will see spx highs above those seen in sept. 2012 but this wave is in its final stages and a 5% correction at minimum awaits. i don’t expect to allocate more than 50% to longs, holdings will be almost exclusively in tna to avoid higher commissions and avoid slippage if quick exits are required.”
upgrade no. 2 is a new trading system, the two faced system – although still in the works, which will attempt to be always in the market with both longs and shorts in equal numbers during periods when my long term “heaven and hell system” is in the range of +9 to -9. a -10 signal is a crash signal and only shorts will be held, a +10 is buy everything in sight signal and only longs will be held, other wise a new set of 10 longs and 10 new shorts will be posted every month as part of this new trading system. the heaven/hell system is at a respectable +6 currently.
Submitted on 2013/01/09 at 9:08 pm:
“many new heroic feats are under way to improve my little blog’s offerings, such as a new stock picking system that picks super hero momo stocks to hold for one month and another system that finds 90 pound weakling stocks to short during that same month. i will be testing these two new systems here live prior to doling out actual cash.
the list of 10 new longs would have made 1.61% today while the spy was up only 0.25%.
the list of 10 new shorts would have made +0.63% today.
the goal is to always hold equal number of longs and shorts, with a fresh list every month. no complicated timing will be necessary with this combination of stock picking systems; the only timing is a rarely occurring signal that is used for predicting severe market down turns, i.e. crashes.
under a crash scenario no longs will be suggested for that month or a percentage stop loss for total long folio will be given . currently there is no crash foreseen within the coming month.
again, this system is only an experiment.
the longs are: $RAX, $CYOU, $CVLT, $FLT, $BMA, $IPGP, $SWI, $BKJ, $LKQ AND $RLOC.
the shorts are:$ESI, $BTH, $QCOR, $MAKO, $SKUL, $BV, $RUSS, $STRA, $GORO, AND $ALTT.
profits and losses will be updated for this system as usual.”
Submitted on 2013/01/11 at 2:13 pm:
“changed requirements for 2 faced system, the new longs are $AEGR, $FB, $ASCA, $ARMH, $RBS, $F, $TXI, $THC, $NFLX, and $RAIL; all reflecting today’s prices. as previously stated, the 2 faced system is a work in progress.”
the most recent 2 faced longs were 1.68% on friday, +0.45% since inception of mid-day friday, while $spy during same period was -0.01
2 faced shorts are profitable by +1.89% since 2013/01/09 inception while $spy is up +0.79%, shorts are making money on bullish days so far.
i have continued to track the closed out long folios to further torture myself.
large cap roadmap folio of 10 stocks as of 2031/01/11 would have been +12.00% while $spy is up 6.58% during same period.
high risk A folio of 43 stocks would be +7.85% while $iwm is +4.27%
high risk B folio of 10 stocks would be +9.48% while $iwm is 11.08%
low risk folio of 47 socks would be +14.87% while $iwm during ssame period is +3.74%
midcap folio of 39 stocks would be +12.74% since 2012/12/09 inception while $mdy is +5.08%.
the elliott “PSTT”, proprietary short term trend system, remains on a buy signal although my ear has remained deaf to its sweet song.
i continue to await a short term sell signal. i plan to BE more subservient and to heed both long term and short term “PSTT” signals in the future.
non the less,
my goal for the coming year is to beat these guys:
especially kenny griffin and citadel trading.