no charts or spread sheets today.
caution for longs is warranted.
read sections B. and F. at minimum.
good money management is watching and heeding the call of your indicators.
FRIDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/08/09
unchanged today: 81.875% invested: 17.875% short (6.875% consists of a short $UVXY position , that is, i am short volatility, reduced from 27.5% at positions peak), 64% long into close. multiple stock folios will remain fully invested but either $TZA or $UVXY will be purchased as a hedge if necessary.
see blog comments section outside of daily market update body for any of today’s trade details .
B. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: still on buy signal but caution signal for longs activated: SELL on an spx close at or below 1684.75. still on BUY SIGNAL FROM friday, 2013/07/05, when we closed above 1627 spx.
prior signal was a SELL @ spx 1607 on, 2013/06/20, thursday morning. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: now on SELL, -7, down 11 as of friday, 2013/08/09. prior BUY signal on 2013/08/02. prior signal was a sell on monday, 2013/07/29.
prior BUY signal was on fri., 2013/07/05.
on a scale of -10 to +10 , need a 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered; 0 is neutral. indicator heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
a negative 6 (-6) remains a short until a neutral 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: -7, unchanged , * still on a SELL as of 2013/07/25, prior buy was thursday’s close on 2013/06/06 . prior signal was a neutral on 2013/04/17. prior BUY signal was on wed., 2013/04/09.
an -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
C. TODAY’S BENCHMARKS:
$SPY -0.29%, $IWM -0.11%, $SPX range (h,l,c): 1699.42, 1686.02, 1691.42.
$UVXY +3.01% @34.95, $NUGT +5.96% @6.76.
1. JULY monthly 2faced longs: -0.94% today,-5.04% since July 01/2013, vs. $spy benchmark +5.54%.
system holds for an entire month. carrying into august.
2. JULY monthly 2faced shorts: -3.79% loss today, -5.62% loss since July 01,2013, vs. $spy short -5.54% loss. system holds for an entire month. carrying into august.
3.. weekly 2faced longs: folio is in cash for next few weeks.
system holds longs for a full week to 2 weeks.
4. weekly 2faced shorts: folio is in cash for the next few weeks.
system holds longs for a full week to 2 weeks.
i also use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.
5. large cap folio of 49 stocks: +0.11% today, +19.88% since March 05, 2013, vs. $spy benchmark +9.59%.
6. small cap folio of 49 stocks: -1.17% today, +31.54% since March 05,2013, vs. $iwm benchmark +13.85%.
7. nano cap folio of 18 stocks: closed, in cash since 2013/07/11. +18.79% since March 15, 2013 vs. benchmark $iwm +10.34%.
8. small cap B folio of 49 stocks: -0.41% today, +26.81% since March 10, 2013, vs. $iwm benchmark +11.00%.
9. large cap B folio of 10 stocks: closed, in cash since 2013/07/19. +10.47% since March 29, 2013, vs. $spy benchmark +7.98%.
E. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
1. heaven/hell crash indicator: down 12 to -8, short term extreme caution for longs is warranted. prior week’s reading was at +4, a high neutral to tenuous long reading.NO CRASH IN SIGHT until we see a reading of -10. next signal update will be on 2013/08/16. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. currently there are no signs of an upcoming crash. an extremely bullish +10 is very positive for the next several days to weeks for the stock market.
this indicator is more valuable as a crash indicator; i make sure i am heavily short at a -10.
*2. early warning intermediate to long term two stage indicator for hedging: unchanged, ACTIVE, ADD SHORTS AT SPX 1596.
all other long term indicators remain on a BUY.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a BUY.
F. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS and one rock’n roll dudes’s sometimes wise ramblings:
the heavily weighted short term “PSTT” caution signal for longs has been activated and a sell signal will be triggered upon a monday reading of spx 1684.75 or lower at 5 to 10 minutes prior to the close.
the qqq indicator went on a sell signal today, friday 2013/08/09, with a -7 reading. prior buy was on friday, 2013/08/02. prior sell was monday, 2013/07/29.the early warning long term two stage indicator for hedging gave a signal for hedging at spx 1596 ON WEDNESDAY, 2013/08/07 and remains active.
the smart money indicator went on a sell on thursday, 2013/07/25 and continues on a sell. the prior buy was thursday’s,2013/07/06,close. uvxy shorts were added upon the current “pstt buy signal triggered on friday, 2013/07/05. i am still holding some short uvxy from 62.88, 60.58 and 72.69 but will sell at spx 1684.75 or uvxy 37.01 which ever is hit first.
the preponderance of evidence is still slanted toward the likelihood of a 5 to 10% correction, just delayed . i have stressed for weeks now that 1700-1745 is a high short term risk area.
a). non folio open positions are: uvxy as mentioned in above paragraph, long tna holdings from weeks ago, no stop yet, fnma long holdings from weeks ago, no stop yet. in all likelihood i will sell tna positions at 1684.75 spx.
below are other non folio recent trades:
b).on friday,2013/08/09, i closed half of the $NUGT shorts from 6.88 at 6.46 per daily market update stop instructions for a 6.10% profit.
c).on 2013/08/02 i closed $NUGT also from 6.88 at 6.22 for a 9.59% profit.
d). stopped out of $NUGT longs on monday, 2013/07/22, at 7.33 average after being long from 5.70 a 1% allocation and from 7.46 for a 2% allocation for an average price of 6.58 for an 11.39% profit.
e.) a 20% allocation of tna shorts were added on friday, 2013/07/26, at 57.56. on 2013/07/31 the 20% allocation of shorts were closed out at a 2.7% average loss for a 1/2 of 1% dent in my total portfolio, thus the cost of hedging and a small price to pay.
see comments section for any of today’s trades and other adjusted stops, if any.
CAUTION IS WARRANTED,
i will be adding a 30% allocation of $UVXY longs upon the elliott “PSTT” sell signal.