next target is the mid 1500′s spx.
all stock indices are on elliot proprietary short term trend buy signals.
the roadmap folio of spy remains 100% long.
since march 09, 2012 purchase of the stocks in the high risk folio we have an open profit of 10.64% versus 5.35% for the target qqq, so our folio is outperforming the market so far.
the total portfolio is about 45% long , 10% short; 35% net long.
the tna folio has a close profit of over 105% since initiation in september 2011.
11/14/11 @ 7:45 p.m. above chart still applies although it doesn’t include 11/14/11 data. below is an updated long term portfolio spreadsheet of 21 stocks in the long term conservative portfolio with today’s closing data. only the last 10 or so stocks and the avg. portfolio open profit is shown, click on long term portfolio tags or roadmap for 10/10/11 for the full list of stocks.
new notes as of monday, 12/14/11, 12:20 a.m. :
i will open the following new long term conservative/ value oriented portfolio if spx trades below 1250 or above 1278 on monday or tuesday, buying each of the following stocks at the close: AMAT, CPLA, DLB, GTAT, GTIV, GNI (12% dividend), ESI, KLIC, LMLP, LTXC, MPAA, PETS, PWER, TNAV, VECO; that’s 15 stocks.
the high risk long term portfolio will buy back at mostly lower prices the same stocks it sold several days ago if spx trades below 1250 at anytime on monday or tuesday by buying at the close: AIG, NABI, GOK SUNH, PACB, MILL, JKS, IPSU, DNDN, CIS, MOTR, INSM, and GTIV.
the new medium risk short term portfolio will buy the following stocks if spx trades above 1278 or below 1250 on monday or tuesday: GFA, BPI, SAH, BBD, CAP, DDIC, ACM, TITN, IAG, WBS, CGI, KONG, and DIOD.
what follows is the original weekend/monday roadmap:
i reduced longs to 80% from 90% at 1255 spx on tue. 11/08 and stated after hours in the comments section that i would reduce longs to 70% at spx 1290, unfortunately we never made it that high as wed. 11/09 gap opened down hard, no problem as we wob and weave to mkt. conditions. please notice that i slightly changed the elliott wave count. no big deal, it just makes better sense after contemplating it for a few days
if things work out as in the above chart i will begin to load up all portfolios and system trades once again this coming week. soon i’ll give you a heads up as far as the new portfolio stock additions, stocks will be more conservative picks this time.
LONG TERM LOW RISK PORTFOLIO IS STILL LONG
BOTH HIGH RISK PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
BOTH TNA AND DRN PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
LONG TERM COMMODITY ETF PORTFOLIO HAS BEEN FLAT FOR OVER TWO WEEKS AFTER BEING SHORT FOR MONTHS.
increasing longs to 85% in roadmap acct. at spx 1250 and to 90% at spx 1240. may even go past 100% if we drop further. the next impulse wave up should be just as strong as wave 3′s tend to subdivide. if we rally above 1278 spx, especially if we close above 1278, that will be proof that it’s time to add to longs and that correction is over but best bet is that we are in an abcde triangle. i’m looking for 1415 spx as a target by eoy, may not get it but we most likely we will see new 52 week highs by eoy.
MAINTAINING STOP AT 1190 SPX FOR PORTFOLIOS except drn and tna which are system trades.
no trades on friday, drn and tna are still flat with good profits, about 70% in tna.
from the recent comments section:
Submitted on 2011/11/11 at 1:15 am
word of caution, as i watch the futures, es. it appears that the futures contract is morphing into and abcde correction, a triangle. the c being the low on wed., 11/09/11. bottom line is there may not be a low below spx 1215 prior to a continuation of the rally – we shall see. the abcde scenario would make sense as it would further frustrate both bulls and bears and does occur more often in 4th waves. remember we need to burn off bullish optimism, refer to the mark hulbert partial article and url i posted last week.
patience is a greater virtue for traders than it is for bulls or bears.
Submitted on 2011/11/11 at 10:14 am
if we rally above 1278 spx, especially if we close above 1278, that will be proof that it’s time to add to longs and that correction is over but best bet is that we are in an abcde triangle (as i outlined in the comments section last night) that started 10/27/11 at 1292.66 and that we will probably see 1245-48 today or monday – from there we should rally strongly to new recent highs then higher.
Posted in daily road map
Tagged elliott wave, investing, long term conservative portfolio spreadsheet, trading
i reduced longs to 80% from 90% at 1255 spx on tue. 11/08 and stated after hours in the comments section that i would reduce longs to 70% at spx 1290, unfortunately we never made it that high as wed. 11/09 gap opened down hard, no problem as we wob and weave to mkt. conditions. please notice that i slightly changed the elliott wave count. no big deal, it just makes better sense after contemplating it for a few days
if things work out as in the above chart i will begin to load up all portfolios and system trades once again this coming week. soon i’ll give you a heads up as far as the new portfolio stock additions, stocks will be more conservative picks this time.
LONG TERM LOW RISK PORTFOLIO IS STILL LONG
BOTH HIGH RISK PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
BOTH TNA AND DRN PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
LONG TERM COMMODITY ETF PORTFOLIO HAS BEEN FLAT FOR OVER TWO WEEKS AFTER BEING SHORT FOR MONTHS.
increasing longs to 85% in roadmap acct. at spx 1250 and to 90% at spx 1240. may even go past 100% if we drop further. the next impulse wave up should be just as strong as wave 3′s tend to subdivide. if we rally above 1278 spx, especially if we close above 1278, that will be proof that it’s time to add to longs and that correction is over but best bet is that we are in an abcde triangle i’m looking for 1415 spx as a target by eoy, may not get it but we most likely we will see new 52 week highs by eoy.
MAINTAINING STOP AT 1190 SPX FOR PORTFOLIOS except drn and tna which are system trades.
no trades on friday, drn and tna are still flat with good profits, about 70% in tna.
from the recent comments section:
Submitted on 2011/11/11 at 1:15 am
word of caution, as i watch the futures, es. it appears that the futures contract is morphing into and abcde correction, a triangle. the c being the low on wed., 11/09/11. bottom line is there may not be a low below spx 1215 prior to a continuation of the rally – we shall see. the abcde scenario would make sense as it would further frustrate both bulls and bears and does occur more often in 4th waves. remember we need to burn off bullish optimism, refer to the mark hulbert partial article and url i posted last week.
patience is a greater virtue for traders than it is for bulls or bears.
Submitted on 2011/11/11 at 10:14 am
if we rally above 1278 spx, especially if we close above 1278, that will be proof that it’s time to add to longs and that correction is over but best bet is that we are in an abcde triangle (as i outlined in the comments section last night) that started 10/27/11 at 1292.66 and that we will probably see 1245-48 today or monday – from there we should rally strongly to new recent highs then higher.
i reduced longs to 80% from 90% at 1255 spx on tue. 11/08 and stated after hours in the comments section that i would reduce longs to 70% at spx 1290, unfortunately we never made it that high as wed. 11/09 gap opened down hard, no problem as we wob and weave to mkt. conditions. please notice that i slightly changed the elliott wave count. no big deal, it just makes better sense after contemplating it for a few days
sold my nov. 122 spy calls at 3.86 wed., 11/09/11 for a 21.62% loss, they were purchased on tue. 10/25 at 4.925. less than one percent was allocated to this trade.
i hope readers also lightened their long exposure as i began to do so last week.
LONG TERM LOW RISK PORTFOLIO IS STILL LONG
BOTH HIGH RISK PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
BOTH TNA AND DRN PORTFOLIOS ARE STILL FLAT
LONG TERM COMMODITY ETF PORTFOLIO HAS BEEN FLAT FOR OVER TWO WEEKS AFTER BEING SHORT FOR MONTHS.
increasing longs to 85% in roadmap acct. at spx 1226 and to 90% at spx 1216. may even go past 100% if we drop further. the next impulse wave up should be just as strong as wave 3′s tend to subdivide. i’m looking for 1415 spx as a target by eoy, may not get it but we most likely we will see new 52 week highs by eoy.
MAINTAINING STOP AT 1190 SPX FOR PORTFOLIOS except drn and tna which are system trades.
ENJOY THE SUSHI!
from comment section a few minutes ago:
inceasing longs in roadmap acct. by 15% allocation at spx 1143 at 3:08 pm.
$TNA s.t. system went short at 35.48 earlier today.
i’ve relabeled the 60 min. spx charts to account for the bearish down turn. a major concern of mine was that momentum to the up-side had been waning and that we hadn’t hit the 1230-40 by the time period i had allotted, namely this week. if you read some of this weeks posts you’ll see that concern as duly noted and underscored, hence the raised stop and closing out of profits in the road-map acct. and the small stake in puts.
the tna and drn systems are still both short.
trading tip: it is very important to realize when you are wrong and to adjust your wave count accordingly. there is no shame in changing
your game plan to make a profit or to reduce losses – even at the risk of looking foolish sometimes.
below is the longer view of the wave count on a spy chart.
road-map longs have been judiciously reduced since sept. 15 with profits and i am now short.
i briefly owned some spy calls today when spx was at 1192 and stopped when spx was at 1186, my booboo but the risk/reward was very favorable per elliott wave setups .
all longs from the road-map account were closed out with nice profits
and we are short via long spy sept. 120 puts also with profits.
tna system is short with profits.
drn swing system is also short with profits.
was 40% long now short.
from last night’s roadmap:
“stop is still at set hrly. bar close below 1188.
i’ll be buying the spy 093011P120, that’s the sept. 120 puts which expire sept. 30 if the spx hourly bar closes below 1188; a 1% account allocation.
sentiment, internals and momentum indicators remain bullish so i’m not very bearish.
tna short-term system went flat at 43.47 and later went short at 43.73. drn system is still short from 51.49 with a stop and reverse at 54.36.”
i’m waiting for pullbacks to add shorts and to re-evaluate the wave count.
Posted in daily road map, daily swing system signals, elliot wave trading, elliott wave indicators, trading signals
Tagged daily swing system signals, elliott wave trading, elliott wave trading indicators, portfolio exposure - increments/reductions, stock market indicators, trading indicators, trading signals
still expect 1230-1240 in spx and down to sideways action in nasdaq. a red alert will set off if we don’t attain 1230 spx by thursday of this week or if spx hrly. bar closes below 1280 1188. elliott counts remain unchanged.
tna short-term system remains long from 42.08. drn swing system is now short from 51.49 with a stop and reverse to long at 54.80 for tues. only.
roadmap account is still 40% long mostly spy.
drn swing system is currently long, stop and reverse to short at 51.49. this system continues to be whip sawed but will lock onto a trend once it reveals itself.
the tna short-term system is still long from 42.08 and very close to being stopped out hopefully with a profit.
i’m currently 40% long (see spx chart from friday for points where longs were added and sold) and getting smaller quickly. i still expect new yearly highs in spx by dec. of this year but upward momentum indicators are deteriorating quickly. it is very necessary to protect profits at this point at the risk of not earning higher profits from longs.
if momentum to the downside reveals itself i’ll be looking to enter shorts on strength (rallies to the upside) per wave count.
protective stop on spy holdings is set at on an hourly bar closing below 1188 spx.
STOP HAS BEEN RAISED TO 1188 ON AN HRLY. BASIS, EVEN IF STOPPED OUT WE’LL WALK AWAY WITH SOME HANDSOME PROFITS.
stop is triggered if we closed below 1188 on the hourly spx bar.
we are currently 40% long (mostly spy). longs were reduced at 1215 spx and at the close at spx 1216 ( see the above chart for our entries).
will provide tna and drn trading system details later with week-end update.
ABOUT STANDARD_AND_POOR BLOG
This is part of my trading journal to be used to document a majority of my trades and a holding place for my various brief posts on trading blogs. I won’t be spending much time here but I will try to respond to any communication within 24 hours.
I will be trading both intraday and swing trading as well as posting some long- term trades. I trade both the long side and the short side using elliott wave and proprietary trading systems and methods. I’ll try to post some helpful trading and money management tips along the way as well as snippets of my other interests such as music, art, photography, etc.
I don’t claim to be an expert in elliott wave theory and all its complex rules and wave notations but do claim to maximize it’s potentially profitable and under utilized features with the use of proprietary trading methods and some seldom disclosed money management techniques.
This trading journal is and will continue to be a work in progress as well as a labor of love. Along our shared path I hope we both learn from each other as well from ourselves. This blog may take a life of its own as I begin to share some off my other passions such as music and various visual art forms. Anything worth doing should be done with equal doses of fun and passion.
The road-map account will be the primary swing trading account, I will usually disclose the allocation of longs and shorts in a percentage basis as well as the direction I think the standard and poor 500 index is heading for the next day or two, some days I will not have a clue and will merely ride the trend.
Two trading systems are works in progress, they are the $DRN swing system which is usually in the market long or short and rarely flat and the $TNA intra-day system which is very short-term. The $DRN system never misses the big moves but it suffers during the side ways markets. The $TNA system signals are reported at the end of the day and rarely real-time, it trades long and short and is sometimes flat for days to avoid whip-saw.
Further up the road I pan to add my long-term account to this trading journal and perhaps more ES day trades as well as some improved trading systems.
