best 16 stocks for 2012, high risk folio: roadmap 3/19/2012 , paint it green

wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 continues to surprise to the upside.
wave 1 length = 1292.66-1074.77=217.89
217.89x fibonacci 1.618=352.54
217.89x fibonacci 2.618=570.43
wave2 low=1158.67
1158.67 + 352.54 = 1511.22
1158.67 + 570.43 = 1728.86

therefore expected wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 high target is between 1511.22 and 1728.86.

the proprietary indicator i was hoping to share, the standard and poor fear and greed indicator, has failed me miserably in forecasting the last expected shorting opportunity in jan./feb. and caused losses to the roadmap folio and the prior high risk folio and medium risk folio as well. i have discontinued using it and will unfortunately not email fear/greed indicator updates to all those who had requested to be on the mailing list. my apologies.

the elliott “proprietary short term trend” indicator, the “P.S.T.T.,
is still on a buy signal for the spx and other indices.

PERTINENT COMMENTS FROM PRIOR POST:
Submitted on 2012/03/13 at 2:38 pm:
roadmap portfolio longs increased from 50% to 100% ; long spy from 134.40.

Submitted on 2012/03/09 at 12:01 pm:
all roadmap folio shorts closed out at open, spy 137.33. now 50% long spy from 137.34.

all high risk folio shorts closed out at open. high risk folio is now 100% the following 16 stocks in equal proportions:aapl, ulta, pcln, swks, cern, fosl, fast, asna, wwww, anik, ddic, zoll, rost, dxpe, pmtc, and tcbi.

the medium risk folio is now 100% long the folllowing 10 stocks in equal proportions: cmg, hlf, tdc, coh, rax, rgr, wcg, tpx, flt, and paa.

total portfolio commitment = 705/10 = 70.5%
total short exposure = o%
total long exposure = 70.5%
net long = 70.5%

Submitted on 2012/03/15 at 12:32 pm:
selling $zoll @ 92.77 and replacing it with more $aapl at 590.95 in the high risk folio; aapl is now 14.28% of the high risk folio.
about a 23% return in zoll in a week.

the high risk portfolio spread sheet above shows the 16 stocks i purchased on 03/09/2012 has a total return of 7.24% as of the friday, 3/16, close, whereas the qqq has a return of 2.74% for the same period.

i have left out most of the usual blog filler this time as my schedule has become more constrained.

best of health, bliss and luck in the markets to all. continue to watch the comments section for trading updates.

new song by sinead o’connor in honor of Saint Patrick’s day:

EGO CHECK (i didn’t see it coming): roadmap for friday 3/09/12

PORTFOLIOS:
category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

1. roadmap/spy: 95% short spy, unchanged from prior post.

2. low risk: flat.(THIS WILL BECOME the PROSHARES SECTOR FOLIO)

3. high risk: 100% short 10 stocks.

4. medium risk: 100% long svxy.(short volatility index)

5. small cap/tna: 100% long.

6. real estate: 0% vested.

7. metals: 100% long allocation of $nugt added to metals portfolio at

8. options and volatility: 10% long $AGQ january 2013 70 calls @ 13.65,long 10% long $UNG january 2014 7.00 calls @ 0.875. options folio is now 30% long. previous post incorrectly listed a 20% long position in tna calls whereas it was 10%. summary, folio is 30% long calls.

9. energy: o% vested.

10. long-term commodity folio was 30% long,10% each: in $AGQ from 58.77, long $POT from 46.10, and 10% long $URRE from 1.11, today added a 10% position in $nugt at 23.82
l.t. commododity portfolio is 40% long.

total portfolio commitment = 565/10 = 56.55%
total short exposure = 195/10=19.5%
total long exposure = 370/10=37%
net long = 17.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

SUMMARY:
when short term spx elliott trend indicator goes long i’ll close out most shorts and add longs as intermediate wave 3 will likely continue uptrend.

I WILL BE ADDING A NEW FEATURE: folio no. 2 will be dedicated to trading proshares sector leveraged etfs.

once i add longs, folio 3 will be all four letter stocks from nasdaq; folio 4. will be all three letter stocks from nyse. portfolio 8 will become the options and volatility etf folio, the current svxy trade will be placed here.

i currently have about 28 stocks, all longs , picked out for the high risk and medium risk folios.

when my time comes; roadmap for mon. 2/27/2012

wave 3 of 3 of intermediate wave 3 still in topping process.
as you can see in the daily spx chart above candles are contracting in size as momentum also contracts. while this double contraction occurs sentiment remains markedly bullish even as europe appears to collapse.

Sentiment Survey Past Results
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
February 23: 43.69% 28.80% 27.51%
February 16: 42.71% 30.65% 26.63%
February 9: 51.64% 28.17% 20.19%
February 2: 43.81% 31.12% 25.08%
January 26: 48.40% 32.69% 18.91%
January 19: 47.23% 29.15% 23.62%
January 12: 49.14% 33.68% 17.18%
January 5: 48.88% 33.96% 17.16%

later this week i will update portfolio data.
roadmap is still 95% short while overall portfolio is mixed.

Wolf!, roadmap for thurs. , 2/23/11, short version

roadmap for thur., 2/23/12
my short term elliott direction indicator turned yellow for cautious late last night due to overseas indices, i’ll be adding more tna shorts/tza and other shorts to other folios as the indicator turns red. using the above 2 points to add more shorts. wave 4 at a bare minimum is the target . if 1300 breaks the next obvious target is wave 2 at 1270.

best ten stocks to buy for wed.2/22/12:$tc, $jade, $abx.. etc.

so many trades occurred today that i had to provide a new post.

NEW FEATURE/ SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL:
short term non elliott wave proprietary timing model is on a buy signal since 2/17/12.

PORTFOLIOS:
category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

1. roadmap/spy: 95% short, unchanged from prior post.

2. value low risk): 80% long, changed from prior post’s 60% long, see pertinent comments below.

3. high risk: 100% short, unchanged from prior post .

4. medium risk: 0% vested, unchanged from prior post.

5. small cap/tna: 0% vested, changed from prior post of 100% long.

6. real estate: 0% vested, unchanged from prior post, intra day trades, see pertinent comments below.

7. metals: 50% allocation of $nugt added to metals portfolio at 23.50, now 50% long.

8. options: 10% long $AGQ january 2013 70 calls @ 13.65,long 10% long $UNG january 2014 7.00 calls @ 0.875. options folio is now 30% long. previous post incorrectly listed a 20% long position in tna calls whereas it was 10%.

9. energy: 50% allocation of $ung added to energy folio at 5.42, now 100% long.

10 long-term commododity folio was 30% long,10% each: in $AGQ from 58.77, long $POT from 46.10, and 10% long $URRE from 1.11, today added a 10% position in $nugt at 23.82
l.t. commod. portfolio is now 40% long. changed.

total portfolio commitment = 545/10 = 54.5%
total short exposure = 19.5%%
total long exposure = 35%,
net long = 15.5.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

TOP TEN STOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY 2/22/12/Worth a Ponder:

Position Open Close Status
Buy RIC 12.15 close open
Buy MOS pending close
Buy FELE pending close
Buy CENX pending close
Buy DTG 75.14 close open
Buy HAL 37.03 close open
Buy AGCO 53.50 close open
Buy ABX 48.45 close open
Buy JADE pending close
Buy TC 8.91 close open
(for educational purposes not portfolio purchase).

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:06 am
50% allocation of drn added at 61.41 for real estate portfolio.

2.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:15 am
50% allocation of $ung added to energy folio at 5.42, now 100% long.

3. i’m expecting long term commodity inflation, thus the steady increment in long commodity etfs. i’ll post some elliott wave charts for commodities later.

4.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:31 am
here are the open prices for today’s top 10 value buys.
Buy DEST 16.52
Buy COBZ 6.18
Buy DISCA 45.22
Buy CNH 43.96
Buy TCAP 19.93
Buy AER 12.61
Buy KNOL 15.85
Buy AXTI 5.42
Buy TPCG 33.92

5. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 10:47 am
50% allocation of $nugt added to metals portfolio at 23.50, prior order to buy a 50% allocation at 22.30 is still active.

6. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:13 am
10% allocation in options folio, long $AGQ january 2013 70 calls @ 13.65.
options folio is now 20% long ( incorrectly posted as 20% long in post prior to this trade).

7. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:20 am |
long 10% allocation in options folio $UNG january 2014 7.00 calls @ 0.875. options folio is now 30% long.

8. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:27 am |
added $FFN at 2.56 to value folio. now 70% long. in value folio.

9.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:29 am |
adding $ESI to value folio @75.64, folio now 80% long.

10. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:33 am |
5.60 buy stop on $PERI for value folio, this stock has a 15% dividend.
all value folio buys are long term plays.

11. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 11:56 am |
stopped out of 50% drn long allocation from 61.41 at 60.95 for a 0.07% loss.

12. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 1:17 pm |
adding a 10% allocation of $nugt to long term commodity portfolio at 23.82 l.t. commod. portfolio is now 40% long.

13. standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 2:50 pm |
NEW FEATURE:
short term non elliott wave proprietary timing model is on a buy signal since 2/17/12.
it provides buy, warning and sell short signals. signals last from 2 to 20 market days. average is about 10 market days.
(edit: actually a better version will be used which does contain elements of elliott and fibonacci.)

14.standard_and_poor | February 21, 2012 at 3:02 pm |
tna longs from 62.41 closed out at 61.25 for a 1.8% loss.

Summary:
the 1370-80spx i predicted months ago starting in september 2011 will surely be fulfilled, sadly with out the strong pullback i was looking for first.

next stop for wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 is: standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:36 pm
spx 1511.21 is one possible termination point for wave 3.

keep an eye on the top 10 buys list as they make for great short term trades. 1-5 days. most have great earnings and decent momentum, good criteria for lower risk trades.

watch comments section for the latest in trades and market commentary.

subscribe to this blog for free by filling out the section in the top right corner.

TOP TEN BUYS FOR TODAY / THE BLUE COLLAR POST: roadmap for tues., 2/22/12

annotations for above chart are
AS = accumalation of shorts. RS = reduction of shots.
AL = accumulation of longs. RS = reduction of longs.

PORTFOLIOS:
category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

roadmap/spy: 95% short, unchanged from prior post.
value low risk): 60% long, changed from prior post.
high risk: 100% short, unchanged from priot post .
medium risk: 0% vested, changed from prior pos.
small cap/tna: 100% long tna from 62.41, changed from prior post.
real estate: 0% vested, changed from prior post.
metals: 0% vested,changed.
options: 20% long calls, changed.
energy: 50% long ung from, unchanged.
long-term commod. 30% long,10% each: in $AGQ from 58.77, long $POT from 46.10, and 10% long $URRE from 1.11. changed.

total portfolio commitment = 555/10 = 55.5%
total short exposure = 19.5%%
total long exposure = 36%,
net long = 16.5%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

Top 10 Value Buys For Today/Worth a Ponder
new feature:
Buy $DEST
Buy $COBZ
Buy $DISCA
Buy $CNH
Buy $TCAP
Buy $AER
Buy $KNOL
Buy $AXTI
Buy $TPCG
i won’t be adding these to any portfolio just yet.

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1. | February 16, 2012 at 11:07 am

stopped out of $DRN short from 64.01 at 63.26 for a 1.17% profit.
stopped out of $TNA short from 60.03 at 60.62 for a 0.9% loss.
both portfolios are now flat.
$NUGT portfolio is still short from 24.58.

2. standard_and_poor | February 16, 2012 at 4:38 pm
new position: long $TNA from 61.48
new position: long $DRN from 63.40
closed $NUGT short from 24.58 at 21.87 for an 11.08% profit.
new position: long $NUGT from 22.88.

3. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 3:39 am
closed out option portfolio, was 30% long feb 130 spy puts from avg price of 3.30, close at .025.
closed out value portfolio shorts, portfolio was 10% vested in spy shorts from 130.21. closed out at 136.03 for 4.46% loss.
closed out medium risk portfolio. was 60% short spy from 128.22. closed out at 136.02 for a 6.08% loss.
roadmap and high risk portfolios are still short.

4. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 3:45 am
a 10% allocation of each of the following six stocks were bought in the value portfolio : $OSIR @ 4.91, $PDLI @ 6.41, $USMO @ 14.79, $VECO @ 28.34, $AAPL @ 502.19, and $GPS @ 22.45. i have buy stops on four other somewhat undervalued stocks. i’ll do a write up on all ten later.

5. standard_and_poor | February 17, 2012 at 8:00 pm
sold nugt longs from 22.81 at 22.01 for a 3.5% loss. metal portfolio is now flat.

6. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 11:21 am
50% long $UNG in the energy portfolio from 5.55 at the open. waiting for a pullback to add more.

7. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 11:29 am
closed out tna longs from 61.48 at 63.68 for a 3.5% profit.
closed out drn long from 63.40 at 63.45 for a 0.07% profit.

8. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 12:54 pm
adding $URRE to long term commodities portfolio @1.11.

9. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 3:47 pm
added a 10% allocation of $TNA January 2013 68 calls at 12.60 to options portfolio.

10. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm |
added $POT to long term commodities portfolio at 46.10.

11. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:18 pm
long $AGQ from 58.77 in long term commodity portfolio.

12. standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:34 pm
$TNA longs re-entered at 62.41.

subscribe to this blog for free by filling out the section in the top right corner.

Summary:
the 1370-80spx i predicted months ago starting in september 2011 will surely be fulfilled, sadly with out the strong pullback i was looking for first.

next stop for wave 3 of intermediate wave 3 is: standard_and_poor | February 20, 2012 at 4:36 pm
spx 1511.21 is one possible termination point for wave 3.

keep an eye on the top 10 buys list as they make for great short term trades. 1-5 days. most have great earnings and decent momentum, good criteria for lower risk trades.

watch comments section for the latest in trades and market commentary.

A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

I Wanna Be Adored: roadmap for thurs., 2/17/2012

PORTFOLIOS:

category %L or %S, position changes from prior post

roadmap/spy: 90% short, unchanged from prior post.
value/low risk: 10% short, unchanged.
high risk: 100% short, unchanged.
medium risk: 60% short, unchanged.
small cap/tna: 100% short tna from 60.03, unchanged.
real estate: 100% short drn from 64.01, unchanged.
metals: 100% short $nugt from 24.58, unchanged.
options: 30% long spy puts, unchanged.
energy: 0%, unchanged.
long-term commod. 0%, unchanged.

total portfolio commitment = 590/10 = 59.0%
total short exposure = 59.0%
total long exposure = 0%,
net short 59.0%

all portfolios are elliott wave based except small cap/tna, real estate, metals,options, energy and long term commodity etf portfolios which are non elliott wave rule based trading systems.

watch comments section for portfolio updates, purchases and sales.

Pertinent Comments From Prior Post:
1.standard_and_poor | February 15, 2012 at 1:56 am
I WILL START CLOSING OUT SHORTS TEN MINUTES PRIOR TO ANY SPX DAILY CLOSE WHEN WE ARE ABOVE 1357. i try to stick to the plan although i have to admit i strayed a bit more than i should have with the amount of shorts i put on while still in a confirmed uptrend. i must admit when i’m wrong and bite the bullet as all traders should.

larry asked “at what point i would throw in the towel and reevaulate wave 5″, i responded: Submitted on 2012/01/25 at 9:44 pm | In reply to Larry:
“spx 1348-57 for the roadmap, high risk, med. risk and value portfolios.”

SUMMARY:

this market has been quite the bitch for those of us who have been short, hasn’t it mates? contrary opinion per aaii is feverishly bullish and i’m sure many shorties have fallen by the waysides
and can be found jaundiced and broke along the road sides. the futures are currently down about 7 points and my indicators maintain their overbought and short posture.