MINI ROADMAP UPDATE FOR MONDAY 2014/04/14:
on 2014/04/10 an elliott “PSTT” sell was issued per tweet.
on friday, 2014/04/11, the new big cap short term indicator slipped to SELL at -6 while the short term qqq indicator also slipped to a sell at -8. there is a considerable amount of hysteria out there but perspective is needed: we are only 4.5% off the spx recent high and almost 9% off the rut high. if traders are uncomfortable they are likely holding too many risky nasdaq stocks and should lighten up. i , myself am looking to close the remaining big cap folio this coming week.
on the positive front:
the long term heaven/hell indicator remains a bullish +6, a -10 is required for selling all longs and shorting. this indicator is used as an early alert system of an impending crash in the proportions of 20% or greater declines. i have been using the heaven/hell for predicting coming week activity but it is evidently not reliable as a short term indicator.
all other long term indicators remain on a buy for both spx and rut stocks folios.
the smart money indicator, an intermediate term indicator first went into sell mode in early march and has now drifted into neutral mode and looks like it may soon slide into buy mode.
elliott patterns appear almost completed to the downside but aren’t reliable, therefore as little as possible short term trading is planned until the scenery clears.
on the fundamental front all leading indicators are still firing on all cylinders and crashes don’t usually occurs under such scenarios.
should all hell break loose i am using the following areas for putting on hedges via puts:
should the heaven/hell system be late in issuing a -10, impending crash signal, i will be doing the following:
for the long term $IWM based folios i will 1/2 of the folios at 112.30 IWM and the other half at 101.25 IWM.
for the $SPY based long term folios i will hedge half of the folios when spx hits 1780 and the remaining half at spx 1630.
i am not suggesting the possibility of a crash is imminent but am suggesting that preparation for catastrophe is always necessary.
all long positions will be sold should a -10 be issued by the heaven/hell or other long term indicators and a heavy amount of shorts initiated.
total allocation: 52.5% invested.
40% alloc. in long term folios, 5% allocation in hedgehog folio and the following short term trades:
THE PLAN for MONDAY, 2014/04/14:
(*) denotes a change in holdings as of the prior trading day’s close.
1.UVXY(usually trades inverse to spx with leverage) : 5% long allocation was bought at 63.02 per tweet upon the pstt spx sell signal on 2014/04/10. no stop yet.
2. NUGT: flat. no signal.
3. TNA: flat. no signal.
4: SPXL: 2.5% short . on 2014/04/10a 2.5% allocation of spxl was shorted per tweet at 62.31. no stop yet.
5. FAS: flat. no signal.
6. AAPL: flat. no signal.
7. TSLA: flat. no signal.
8. GOGO: flat. no signal.
9. FB: flat. no signal
10. TWTR: flat. no signal
11. NFLX: flat. no signal
12. JNUG: flat. no signal.
13. FNMA: flat. on 2014/04/11 a 2.5% long allocation was closed per tweet at 3.96, on 2014/04/08 a 2.5% long alloc. of fnma was bought at 4.01, for a 1.24% loss.
14. TEMN: flat. shorting a 1% alloc. at 0.00649.
sorry for the brevity of late, just been super busy. i will be caught up soon.